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We have extended our projections to October 1, 2020. By October 1, we estimate a 95% chance that the US will surpass 150k deaths, a 62% chance of surpassing 175k deaths, and a 41% chance of surpassing 200k deaths. View our updated projections: http://covid19-projections.com pic.twitter.com/SbOXYeQ7FT
Minor detail: our median/most likely estimate is 188k by October, but our mean estimate is 202k deaths because it is weighted by the greater tail risk of higher deaths (the upper range is 50% higher than the median but the lower range is only 20% lower, so mean is skewed high).
What about India? Any info?
You're underestimating the protests' effect on the new cases to follow
This is a good thread regarding the effect of protests:https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395225228664832 …
What’s your sense as to why the model shows the virus slowing after mid-August?
What about the concept of a 2nd wave? Or is a model of just a prolonged 1st wave favoured?
what policies do you assume curtail the second peak you’re projecting for late summer? I don’t get why it would go back down on its own
I am confused after protests and up coming rallies...
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