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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020

      We have lowered our projections 15% from its peak 2 weeks ago due to recent positive data showing a continued steep decrease in infections and deaths in many states. Furthermore, states that have reopened have reopened slowly, reducing the likelihood of an immediate second wave.pic.twitter.com/3ubOPWeOEn

      17 replies 63 retweets 244 likes
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    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020

      The above graph shows all states with >5% YOY diners on May 10. All 8 states still have <50% YOY diners a month after the reopening. Of course, there are capacity limits in place, but the effect is likely minimal since most restaurants are not constantly at full capacity.

      1 reply 2 retweets 31 likes
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    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020

      I also think many of the deaths reported in early May were April deaths that were backlogged/retroactively added, hence skewing the data. As a corollary, we have lowered the IFR for the US from a constant 1% to 0.75%. This is to reflect improving treatments and age distribution.

      7 replies 5 retweets 68 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020

      Our current best estimate is that deaths will plateau by late June, at around 800 deaths per day.pic.twitter.com/3p1g82Oy9i

      7 replies 23 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
      Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020

      However, this is still a fluid situation, especially given recent events. So the projections may further decrease or increase based on new data. But at all times, I will try to encapsulate the uncertainty with the confidence intervals and be transparent about the limitations.

      1:20 PM - 1 Jun 2020
      • 8 Retweets
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      10 replies 8 retweets 93 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @alchemytoday

          Note the last sentence: "Additional mitigation strategies are only necessary if the effective reproduction number (R) after reopening is significantly greater than 1." This hasn't been the case for the US (as of yet), so we are not applying the second mitigation.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Victor Suba‏ @vsrockr 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu

          I'm curious what is the driver of this plateau happening in your model? The total infected seems to be 5~6% in that time-frame so USA wouldn't have reached herd immunity. Are you assuming some kind of equilibrium with ongoing mitigations?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @vsrockr

          It's hard to say. If you look at Sweden for example, they have been at a plateau of around 500 cases and 50-100 deaths per day for the past 2 months. One guess is that an R=1 is right around the range of what people are willing to tolerate for a return to normal.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Zach Bush (NOT Zach Bush MD)‏ @dkwillabus 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu

          Here is my chart for OH comparing Date of Death vs Date of Report of Death. I also have on a here a simple 7-day moving average. How do you think this impacts your model? Perhaps you're already accounting for it?pic.twitter.com/X10KU3irSW

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @dkwillabus

          If you plot a graph based on the date of death, it will always show a decreasing curve because recent deaths have not been accounted for yet.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Pass SR1 and save our democracy‏ @BabiesFree 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu

          You gonna count the Florida deaths they claim are pneumonia? Yeah, didn't think so.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu

           🤷🏻‍♀️ Retweeted  🤷🏻‍♀️

          https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1267577093648347136 …

           🤷🏻‍♀️ added,

           🤷🏻‍♀️ @DanielleFong
          𝙸 𝚌𝚊𝚗𝚗𝚘𝚝 𝚒𝚖𝚊𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚎 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚎𝚡𝚒𝚜𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚖𝚘𝚍𝚎𝚕𝚜 𝚌𝚊𝚗 𝚌𝚊𝚙𝚝𝚞𝚛𝚎 𝚠𝚑𝚊𝚝'𝚜 𝚑𝚊𝚙𝚙𝚎𝚗𝚎𝚍 𝚍𝚞𝚛𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚛𝚎𝚘𝚙𝚎𝚗𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚙𝚛𝚘𝚝𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚜. 𝚆𝚎 𝚗𝚎𝚎𝚍 𝚝𝚘 𝚖𝚘𝚍𝚎𝚕 𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚜𝚎 𝚊𝚜 𝚜𝚞𝚙𝚎𝚛𝚜𝚙𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚛 𝚎𝚟𝚎𝚗𝚝𝚜 https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1267551596902146048 …
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Daniel Steinberg‏ @DanielSingerS 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu

          What's your instincts on whether the recent protests will cause super spreading events? It seems like the outdoor protests in Michigan has not caused a spike in cases there.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Sam‏ @samantha7v 1 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu

          Have you changed each states models too? Also, would MI be adjusted with their new phased reopening happening or is that already included in the model?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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