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On May 3, I went on @CNNTonight with @donlemon and projected that the US will reach 70k deaths on May 5, 80k deaths on May 11, 90k deaths on May 18 and 100k deaths on May 27.
http://covid19-projections.com got all 4 dates exactly correct.pic.twitter.com/IZYhPhdOAo
It's tragic that we had 100,000 lives cut short in a span of 2 months. That’s equivalent to 1 life every minute. It’s difficult to comprehend that each death is not just a number, but a person and story filled with happiness, sadness, family, friends, and everything in-between.
As a data scientist, my goal is to make accurate projections. As a person, I hope my projections would end up overestimating the true numbers. If these projections can save even 1 life, then this project was worthwhile.
There is still time for all of us to positively impact the future: practice social distancing, be respectful of others, avoid large gatherings, and last but not least, trust the science.
I'm afraid to ask what the numbers will be July 1, Aug 1, Sept 1
We're going to bust right through the 240k max aren't we?
Even more tragic is that most people wouldn't know that states are basically counting dead bodies and slapping a "COVID-19" on them, that this represents 3-4% of the total number of deaths in the US per year and that most people aren't in any danger whatsoever.pic.twitter.com/AoaNQ58gJo
The Washington Times is right wing agitprop, but sure.
Surprised to learn that with 13% of population infected, Belgium is closer to "herd immunity" than any other country
With an r0 of 3 its like saying a 6ft person is closer to the moon than a 5ft person. herd immunity would require a high 70%s and belgium is pretty hard hit already, and thats assuming its r3 , if its higher say 6 youre talking 80%s and at that point alot of dead
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