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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

      We now support county-level projections for 14 US counties (which includes NYC, LA, Chicago, Miami, Philly, Detroit, Boston, San Jose, etc). Ontario and Quebec are also added. See our projections for New York City: http://covid19-projections.com/us-ny-new-york-city …pic.twitter.com/1sSut1d2Zv

      16 replies 29 retweets 119 likes
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      Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

      Some notes for NYC: - The initial R0 for NYC is 5.6, which is the highest R0 I've seen - We believe ~25% of NYC has already been infected, which closely reflects the serology studies announced by @NYGovCuomo - The R_t in NYC post-mitigation is below 0.8, which is very low

      1:41 PM - 20 May 2020
      • 24 Retweets
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      • Santiago Afonso Ida Shum Ξdo TDub@home stretch primary sotonye🏹🕰 Sir Geechie Corn Woman 🌽 Spotted Toad
      5 replies 24 retweets 42 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

          While it appears that the New York metro area will see better days ahead, the worst may be yet to come for cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia.

          4 replies 8 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

          I'll consider adding new counties on a bi-weekly basis for high-impact regions. It takes a bit of time to add each one so unfortunately I cannot do them all. If you would like to see projections for your county, please have your city officials reach out to me on our website.

          8 replies 4 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

          You can download our raw data below. Projections data: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/tree/master/projections/2020-05-19/subregion … R-values: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/r_values/latest_r_values_subregion.csv … Testing targets: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/tests_target/tests_target_subregion_by_2020-06-01.csv …

          4 replies 6 retweets 19 likes
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        5. End of conversation
        1. Matt Millman‏ @millkman 20 May 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NYGovCuomo

          Wow 25% I hope this is accurate 🤞

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Loic Toleco‏ @LoicToleco 20 May 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NYGovCuomo

          Given what seems like a lot of noise in the NYC data for the first part of March, is that R0 == 5.6 at the start meaningful in the model? Model for infections seems to assume: 0 infection until feb-21 then stable 405 infections per day until feb-29 then 2452 infection on Mar-1

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 21 May 2020
          Replying to @LoicToleco @NYGovCuomo

          That’s how we bootstrap the model to initialize it. The R0 is important because that tells us how many people each infected person infects, so that’s why this rate grows so quickly and that’s why NYC went from 0 to 600 deaths per day in under a month.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 21 May 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NYGovCuomo

          https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article …pic.twitter.com/QmLtpbZSpc

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        1. Dmitriy Mandel aka Schnitzel  🐈‏ @mndl_nyc 21 May 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NYGovCuomo

          If we believe that R0 in NYC was indeed higher than anywhere at one point, we must ask whether the current 0.8 range is sustainable after reopening. Living in NYC I suspect the answer will come down to how well we manage infection risk on subways. I am not optimistic.

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