Some notes for NYC:
- The initial R0 for NYC is 5.6, which is the highest R0 I've seen
- We believe ~25% of NYC has already been infected, which closely reflects the serology studies announced by @NYGovCuomo
- The R_t in NYC post-mitigation is below 0.8, which is very low
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While it appears that the New York metro area will see better days ahead, the worst may be yet to come for cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia.
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I'll consider adding new counties on a bi-weekly basis for high-impact regions. It takes a bit of time to add each one so unfortunately I cannot do them all. If you would like to see projections for your county, please have your city officials reach out to me on our website.
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You can download our raw data below. Projections data: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/tree/master/projections/2020-05-19/subregion … R-values: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/r_values/latest_r_values_subregion.csv … Testing targets: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/tests_target/tests_target_subregion_by_2020-06-01.csv …
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Thanks for this feature!
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Thanks for adding Ontario and Quebec.
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NYC = five counties combined?
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Yes, that's correct. For some reason JHU only reports the combined data for those 5 boroughs.
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Your estimate for Santa Clara is consistent with the Stanford study unweighted corrected for ELISA tests performed by Boyd in
@stephaniemlee articlehttps://twitter.com/bratwww/status/1261472657117048832 …
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Their test was a while back, so it could have selection bias too
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