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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

    We now support county-level projections for 14 US counties (which includes NYC, LA, Chicago, Miami, Philly, Detroit, Boston, San Jose, etc). Ontario and Quebec are also added. See our projections for New York City: http://covid19-projections.com/us-ny-new-york-city …pic.twitter.com/1sSut1d2Zv

    1:41 PM - 20 May 2020
    • 29 Retweets
    • 119 Likes
    • Dilip Dey KBK📎 AbbeBusoni Regan Marsh, MD MPH Tired & Sakit 🇲🇾 Dean "95% immune, still masking" Boulding 🇨🇦 Ida Shum Emkessen Micaela A. Larkin
    16 replies 29 retweets 119 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

        Some notes for NYC: - The initial R0 for NYC is 5.6, which is the highest R0 I've seen - We believe ~25% of NYC has already been infected, which closely reflects the serology studies announced by @NYGovCuomo - The R_t in NYC post-mitigation is below 0.8, which is very low

        5 replies 24 retweets 42 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

        While it appears that the New York metro area will see better days ahead, the worst may be yet to come for cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia.

        4 replies 8 retweets 22 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

        I'll consider adding new counties on a bi-weekly basis for high-impact regions. It takes a bit of time to add each one so unfortunately I cannot do them all. If you would like to see projections for your county, please have your city officials reach out to me on our website.

        8 replies 4 retweets 25 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020

        You can download our raw data below. Projections data: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/tree/master/projections/2020-05-19/subregion … R-values: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/r_values/latest_r_values_subregion.csv … Testing targets: https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/tests_target/tests_target_subregion_by_2020-06-01.csv …

        4 replies 6 retweets 19 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. Bin Fu‏ @berniefu 20 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        Thanks for this feature!

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Bill Comeau‏ @Billius27 20 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        Thanks for adding Ontario and Quebec. 👏

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Lucas Rodrigues‏ @luucasrsilva 20 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        @samydana

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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      1. New conversation
      2. swiffy‏ @swiffydk 20 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        NYC = five counties combined?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 May 2020
        Replying to @swiffydk

        Yes, that's correct. For some reason JHU only reports the combined data for those 5 boroughs.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. B Webb‏ @bratwww 20 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        B Webb Retweeted B Webb

        Your estimate for Santa Clara is consistent with the Stanford study unweighted corrected for ELISA tests performed by Boyd in @stephaniemlee articlehttps://twitter.com/bratwww/status/1261472657117048832 …

        B Webb added,

        B Webb @bratwww
        Replying to @wfithian @jasongfleischer @stephaniemlee
        I came here to ask the same. If truly false positives, it might that be consistent with the 98.3% specificity based on the manufacturer's data. pic.twitter.com/UJT6tgZzGi
        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      3. B Webb‏ @bratwww 20 May 2020
        Replying to @bratwww @youyanggu @stephaniemlee

        Their test was a while back, so it could have selection bias too

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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