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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 18 May 2020

    Here is an evaluation of our state-by-state projections compared to other CDC models. http://covid19-projections.com  remains the most consistently accurate model. We are the only model that beat the baseline model (using previous week's avg deaths for future projections) every week.pic.twitter.com/MhPwrn7hLo

    1:19 PM - 18 May 2020
    • 45 Retweets
    • 105 Likes
    • ひまけん Emilio resistente Scott Davison 2 + 2 = 4 Ed Hickey Dean_089 Podcast Pat Roger Pielke Jr. oracling at the f*cking edges of the apocalypse
    11 replies 45 retweets 105 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 18 May 2020

        For those that wonder why we chose Sat May 16 as our evaluation, the CDC uses what's called an MMWR week/epiweek (https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/document/MMWR_Week_overview.pdf …) that ends on Saturday. Hence, all CDC models provide weekly projections ending on Saturdays: http://cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html …

        2 replies 4 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 18 May 2020

        Due to the reason above, we perform weekly evaluations using data from the end of the epiweek (Saturday). You can find our past evaluations here: http://covid19-projections.com/historical-performance … All projections data from:https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub …

        2 replies 1 retweet 15 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Albert Pinto‏ @70sBachchan 18 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        Is it fair to say that the baseline model (just averaging the past weeks deaths) is outperforming other complex model projections because R has stagnated around 1 for more than a month? (fig from @XihongLin's NISS talk https://www.niss.org/sites/default/files/COVID-19-05-15-2020-COPSS-NISS-xl.pdf …)pic.twitter.com/iXkDOUONnJ

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 18 May 2020
        Replying to @70sBachchan @XihongLin

        Yes I'd say that's a fair assessment. But of course, we've known that for some time. It's not surprising news.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Anshul Kundaje‏ @anshulkundaje 18 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        I've been confused about one aspect. Why are the models not using the baseline more effectively e.g. focusing the model on predicting the residual over the baseline. Instead most of the models are substantially underperforming the baseline.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 18 May 2020
        Replying to @anshulkundaje

        I run residuals on our projections every week, and that analysis certain helps. I can't speak for the other groups though.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Data for Dinner‏ @data_dinner 18 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        How are some of these models so bad? What are they even doing? Like, imagine a weather forecast which was consistently being outperformed by a "weather today same as weather tomorrow" model.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 18 May 2020
        Replying to @data_dinner

        That's a good analogy. If a region has 50% rain probability, then using the previous day's weather would yield ~50% accuracy (assuming independence). But if a region has only 10% rain probability, then using the previous day would yield ~82% accuracy. So that's tougher to beat.

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Clint maffett‏ @MaffettClint 18 May 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        I am confused. In may 1 you said it would be a few weeks to know if there would be a spike as States reooen. It has been more than three weeks since GA and FL reopened and no spike?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 18 May 2020
        Replying to @MaffettClint

        Youyang Gu Retweeted David Fahrenthold

        I'm wary of Georgia's reporting: https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1262029906512404480 … Also worried about Florida: https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-officials-stop-publishing-coronavirus-death-toll-data-2020-4 … Meanwhile, here's Texas: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/18/857943858/coronavirus-cases-surge-in-texas-panhandle-as-state-continues-to-reopen …

        Youyang Gu added,

        David FahrentholdVerified account @Fahrenthold
        The state of Georgia made it look like its covid cases were going down ***by putting the dates out of order on its chart*** May 5 was followed by April 25, then back to May again, whatever made it look like a downslope. https://twitter.com/ajc/status/1262012536968396801 …
        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies

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