Look up, this helps your argument (just posted):https://twitter.com/MotleySlate/status/1248222498908487680 …
Sure and none of that accounts for mass gatherings at Costco, Walmart, Meijer, etc. Kids were still playing with friends and many were still going to work during that first week. That takes us to right about March 23. No one was social distancing 2 weeks prior to the 23rd.
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It was not perfect, but closing of schools was huge. Play with a few friends doesn’t compare to being in a closed school. Almost everyone I know was social distancing once kids were out of school on the 16th. Nursing homes and hospitals were already following special protocols.
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With a 2 wk incubation & the "lockdown" not being 2 wks before their spike date, even with the school closing being 1 wk prior to their spike date, we should have hit a peak much closer to what their spike was if their model was correct. It wasn't correct the modeling is wrong.
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