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yellingatwind's profile
Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)
Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)
Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)
@yellingatwind

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Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)

@yellingatwind

Applied microeconomics & stats/risk mgmt/public policy What are your assumptions? I only read the footnotes. Backyard birds are the best.

Palo Alto, CA
twitter.com/yellingatwind/…
Joined December 2014

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    Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 3 Sep 2020

    U of Illinois brought back 40,000+ students to campus based on a model created by 2 very confident physicists, who said epidemiology was important but intellectually unchallenging. Things are not going as planned, because it turns out students party and live together.pic.twitter.com/g5abUj1KsC

    11:32 AM - 3 Sep 2020
    • 3,311 Retweets
    • 11,188 Likes
    • no one 👁️👁️👁️ Zeus Marcos Thanh 🌺方泽宁🌺 El Cee AJ Nasty chey 🌷 A Paramo
    University of Illinois, Bill Hanage and Carl Zimmer
    354 replies 3,311 retweets 11,188 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 3 Sep 2020

        I'm a mere armchair epidemiologist but I'd question the idea field is not intellectually challenging. You need to know statistics/math/sociology/virology/ healthcare delivery etc to make workable recommendations on incomplete data. Humility also required.https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/202005/challenge.cfm …

        53 replies 154 retweets 2,445 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 3 Sep 2020

        It is hard to understand how it takes a Ph.D in ANYTHING to know residential Greek life would be incompatible with controlling coronavirus on campus.https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/09/iub/releases/03-advisory-greek-housing-re-evaluate-living-situation.html …

        18 replies 169 retweets 2,270 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 3 Sep 2020

        I'm giving these guys a hard time but Illinois is a shining star compared to some other large universities where politics and money overrode any consideration of health and safety. Illinois is doing regular testing and taking more action than wagging fingers.

        12 replies 62 retweets 1,217 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 3 Sep 2020

        Links to articles in above tweet: http://news-gazette.com/coronavirus/ui-scientists-modeling-covid-19-say-campus-can-safely-reopen/article_3ef87d58-462f-5efc-9fa6-f5f0692a0312.html … http://chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-covid-19-university-of-illinois-crackdown-social-gatherings-20200902-tyu6hzqilzenfndlrabbrbofqi-story.html … https://massmail.illinois.edu/massmail/61640956.html …

        9 replies 35 retweets 366 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 3 Sep 2020

        ACCESSIBLE U of Illinois brought back 40,000+ students to campus based on a model created by 2 very confident physicists, who said epidemiology was important but intellectually unchallenging. Things are not going as planned, because it turns out students party and live together.pic.twitter.com/IxMqKjEuNb

        Their contribution to the state reads like a success story, of physicists demonstrating the real-world applicability of their skills. But the two of them see it as a failure of government. “I wish that the country was better prepared, and that it wasn’t up to a ragtag group of physicists who decided they needed to do something,” says Goldenfeld.

Maslov and Goldenfeld have set aside their own research for the foreseeable future, to continue helping the state government. This work “is much more important,” says Maslov.

But their pivot does come with a nostalgia for their former lives, just months ago. “We learned to like [epidemiology], but I cannot imagine spending another five years doing it,” says Maslov. For him and Goldenfeld, epidemiological modeling just doesn’t provide the same intellectual thrill that the statistically complex ecological models do. It’s a small loss compared to lives and livelihoods—but intellectual curiosity, too, has been a sacrifice of this pandemic.
        Source: news-gazette

With the UI’s measures, Goldenfeld and Maslov’s model predicts a surge of cases as students arrive, and soon after, nearly 400 people may have to quarantine because of possible contact with an infected person.

“It’s very important that we have good hygiene” as the semester gets underway, Goldenfeld said.

Throughout the semester, 150 to 250 people may be quarantined at one time and the total number who have to quarantine could range from 500 to 5,000, modeling shows.

It also shows that the number of active cases at any one time should remain below 100.

Goldenfeld said there are limitations to the modeling and assumptions that had to be made.

But he described their model as a “worst-case scenario” because it assumes people will spread it randomly, rather than the more likely scenario of among certain friend groups.
        Chicago Tribune 
Despite an expansive testing program and models that predicted how many COVID-19 cases would pop up on campus, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is confronting a grim reality shared by other colleges attempting to stay open: Partying among undergraduate students is leading to hundreds of more infections than anticipated, jeopardizing the in-person experience for everyone.

UIUC, the state’s largest university, has tallied roughly 780 new cases on its downstate campus among students, faculty and staff since classes began Aug. 24, according to Martin Burke, a chemistry professor leading the school’s testing program. Earlier Wednesday, the school had characterized the number as “more than 400″ before clarifying during a news conference.
To deal with the surge, UIUC officials announced a number of changes to its contact tracing efforts, stricter disciplinary actions against students flouting the rules and a crackdown on social activity through Sept. 16.
        Snippet from University of Illinois email 
And here is the hardest part. We need you to strictly avoid social gatherings under any circumstances for these two weeks. We know what we are asking with this. Being together with friends is a big part of why you chose to come back. And for our freshmen, opening your college experience with the same isolation that ended your high school career is intensely disappointing.

It is not fair that you will be the ones to fix a situation you did not cause. But this is where we are now, and this is what it will take to repair the damage in time to break the cycle of increasing new cases. Two weeks now gives you the chance for the rest of the semester together.

Why Are We Doing This Now?

Real-time data from our Shield testing program allowed us to quickly detect a rapidly emerging increase in positive cases that will force us to return to fully remote instruction for the rest of the semester if we do not take immediate action to break the cycle.
        13 replies 86 retweets 405 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 4 Sep 2020

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) Retweeted Sam Ruggerio

        I'm hearing from students on campus @Illinois_Alma that the most perfectly designed regime can be foiled by college students who REALLY don't want to be stuck in a room again.https://twitter.com/Sam_Ruggerio/status/1301902762872049665?s=20 …

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) added,

        Sam Ruggerio @Sam_Ruggerio
        Replying to @yellingatwind @Illinois_Alma and 2 others
        Ah, I'd like to think I put my money where my mouth is, that is, I have no clue about the field of epidemiology or building models. But I knew this wouldn't go smoothly when students were running away from contact tracers, and they lost a batch of tests (incl. mine) on tues.
        4 replies 16 retweets 142 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 4 Sep 2020

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) Retweeted NPR

        Another perspective: college students are really good at finding ways around rules they don't want to follow. Assume otherwise at your own (or someone else's) peril.https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1301661521450356736?s=20 …

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) added,

        NPRVerified account @NPR
        A spike in coronavirus cases at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is now calling into question whether any amount of testing and safety precautions can make it safe to reopen college campuses. https://trib.al/JEwhWEx 
        3 replies 14 retweets 121 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 4 Sep 2020

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) Retweeted Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)

        https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1301932252591345664?s=20 …

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) added,

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) @yellingatwind
        The high value of socializing in college combined with students FINALLY seeing their friends after spring semester was a bust is why it was predictable that some students would not follow rules that required them to isolate and their friends to quarantine. https://twitter.com/margaretomara/status/1301886266267426816 …
        1 reply 2 retweets 64 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 4 Sep 2020

        It is clear there are a LOT of people at @Illinois_Alma working insanely hard to try to make an on-campus experience possible. It is also clear that the logistics of getting students to isolate and quarantine are not there yet and noncompliance is likely.https://www.reddit.com/r/UIUC/comments/ilbp05/uiucs_poor_handling_of_covid_cases/ …

        1 reply 4 retweets 64 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 4 Sep 2020

        There is a youtube video where modelers explain the math:https://youtu.be/VmwK9tyNe8A?t=1266 …

        3 replies 3 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 9 Sep 2020

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) Retweeted Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)

        https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1303786685331681280?s=20 …

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) added,

        Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) @yellingatwind
        Replying to @johnmcomfort
        When 25% of your campus is greek-affiliated, there is no such thing as a fail-safe plan in which you allow the students to continue to live and party together. Ignoring this reality just follows a pattern of willful blindness over DECADES by officials to what happens on campus.
        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 9 Sep 2020

        People have been asking to see the model used - there is a preprint now posted that outlines the basics: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.29.20184473v1.full.pdf … 1. Forecast (Aug 26th first day of semester) 2. Actual 3. Forecast by source of infection (including parties)pic.twitter.com/gVNgWogqY1

        Daniel Simons
        4 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 9 Sep 2020

        ~4.3% of faculty, staff and students have now been infected, including 1% who came to campus that way. This number is even higher for undergrads - who are reported to be 95% of infections. Can you imagine what this number is for universities not testing? http://dansimons.com/Illinois_covid_info.html …pic.twitter.com/LzWZbReE5s

        1 reply 5 retweets 5 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 9 Sep 2020

        One note: there is a lot of variation in number of tests done by weekday. Somehow everyone ended up on a Mon/Thur or Tues/Fri schedule which they are trying to fix. https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTestingData …pic.twitter.com/ctZRWrElBc

        0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      16. End of conversation

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