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U of Illinois brought back 40,000+ students to campus based on a model created by 2 very confident physicists, who said epidemiology was important but intellectually unchallenging. Things are not going as planned, because it turns out students party and live together.pic.twitter.com/g5abUj1KsC
I'm a mere armchair epidemiologist but I'd question the idea field is not intellectually challenging. You need to know statistics/math/sociology/virology/ healthcare delivery etc to make workable recommendations on incomplete data. Humility also required.https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/202005/challenge.cfm …
It is hard to understand how it takes a Ph.D in ANYTHING to know residential Greek life would be incompatible with controlling coronavirus on campus.https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/09/iub/releases/03-advisory-greek-housing-re-evaluate-living-situation.html …
I'm giving these guys a hard time but Illinois is a shining star compared to some other large universities where politics and money overrode any consideration of health and safety. Illinois is doing regular testing and taking more action than wagging fingers.
Links to articles in above tweet: http://news-gazette.com/coronavirus/ui-scientists-modeling-covid-19-say-campus-can-safely-reopen/article_3ef87d58-462f-5efc-9fa6-f5f0692a0312.html … http://chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-covid-19-university-of-illinois-crackdown-social-gatherings-20200902-tyu6hzqilzenfndlrabbrbofqi-story.html … https://massmail.illinois.edu/massmail/61640956.html …
ACCESSIBLE U of Illinois brought back 40,000+ students to campus based on a model created by 2 very confident physicists, who said epidemiology was important but intellectually unchallenging. Things are not going as planned, because it turns out students party and live together.pic.twitter.com/IxMqKjEuNb
![Their contribution to the state reads like a success story, of physicists demonstrating the real-world applicability of their skills. But the two of them see it as a failure of government. “I wish that the country was better prepared, and that it wasn’t up to a ragtag group of physicists who decided they needed to do something,” says Goldenfeld.
Maslov and Goldenfeld have set aside their own research for the foreseeable future, to continue helping the state government. This work “is much more important,” says Maslov.
But their pivot does come with a nostalgia for their former lives, just months ago. “We learned to like [epidemiology], but I cannot imagine spending another five years doing it,” says Maslov. For him and Goldenfeld, epidemiological modeling just doesn’t provide the same intellectual thrill that the statistically complex ecological models do. It’s a small loss compared to lives and livelihoods—but intellectual curiosity, too, has been a sacrifice of this pandemic.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhCOp66U0AAfYZs.png)
I'm hearing from students on campus @Illinois_Alma that the most perfectly designed regime can be foiled by college students who REALLY don't want to be stuck in a room again.https://twitter.com/Sam_Ruggerio/status/1301902762872049665?s=20 …
Another perspective: college students are really good at finding ways around rules they don't want to follow. Assume otherwise at your own (or someone else's) peril.https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1301661521450356736?s=20 …
It is clear there are a LOT of people at @Illinois_Alma working insanely hard to try to make an on-campus experience possible. It is also clear that the logistics of getting students to isolate and quarantine are not there yet and noncompliance is likely.https://www.reddit.com/r/UIUC/comments/ilbp05/uiucs_poor_handling_of_covid_cases/ …
There is a youtube video where modelers explain the math:https://youtu.be/VmwK9tyNe8A?t=1266 …
People have been asking to see the model used - there is a preprint now posted that outlines the basics: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.29.20184473v1.full.pdf … 1. Forecast (Aug 26th first day of semester) 2. Actual 3. Forecast by source of infection (including parties)pic.twitter.com/gVNgWogqY1
~4.3% of faculty, staff and students have now been infected, including 1% who came to campus that way. This number is even higher for undergrads - who are reported to be 95% of infections. Can you imagine what this number is for universities not testing? http://dansimons.com/Illinois_covid_info.html …pic.twitter.com/LzWZbReE5s
One note: there is a lot of variation in number of tests done by weekday. Somehow everyone ended up on a Mon/Thur or Tues/Fri schedule which they are trying to fix. https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTestingData …pic.twitter.com/ctZRWrElBc
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