While Russian and Iranian officials talk about jointly manufacturing aircraft, turbines, and other advanced goods, the Iran Chamber of Commerce cites a UNIDO report to point out that just 5% of Iran's exports in 2019 could be categorized as high-tech.
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
Working on economic diplomacy and economic development in West Asia (mainly Iran and Uzbekistan). CEO of .
Mastodon: @yarbatman@econtwitter
Joined August 2014
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پایان ژانویه سال نو میلادی 2023 برابر شد با تصمیم هیئت مدیره "ابزار حمایت از مبادلات تجاری"(INSTEX) برای انحلال این شرکت و پایان دادن به فعالیت آن./1
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Interesting that casts this as a feature, not a bug, of the price cap. But if that’s true, why didn’t the Biden team consider a price cap as an inducement and confidence building measure during nuclear talks with Iran? Could they do so now?
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Historians of economic sanctions will look back on this period and scratch their heads.
Russia is selling oil to India to be refined into fuel for the West while *waging a war in Europe*.
Iran can’t sell any oil to India because it’s enriching uranium (with the IAEA watching).
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“France could have used this war an opportunity to invest big into Ukraine and Central Europe and say, ‘You can really rely on us,’ but that didn’t happen.”
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Prince Abdulaziz told an industry conference in Riyadh: "All of those so-called sanctions, embargoes, lack of investments, they will convolute into one thing and one thing only, a lack of energy supplies of all kinds when they are most needed". #Saudi
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Told that the Iran's free market exchange rate reflects economic sentiments, and is therefore a decent leading indicator of economic performance in the coming months. Iranians know sanctions will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
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"In 2022, more than 2,300 foreign nationals established permanent residence in Uzbekistan, including more than 800 Russian citizens, according to the State Statistics Committee."
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Among plans to build up relations with lots of countries, Ukraine is on the brink of breaking diplomatic relations with Iran. FM : The decision...can be taken at any time, depending on IR further behavior.
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INSTEX is shutting down.
My thoughts on why the special purpose vehicle to protect European trade with Iran failed and what it means for the future of European economic sovereignty.
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INSTEX, the European special purpose vehicle meant to facilitate Europe-Iran transactions after Trump left JCPOA, has been shut down after facilitating a total of ONE transaction.
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Sad and fascinating story.
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INSTEX is shutting down.
My thoughts on why the special purpose vehicle to protect European trade with Iran failed and what it means for the future of European economic sovereignty.
bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2023/
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"Europe’s only gambit to preserve at least some of the economic benefits of the nuclear deal for Iran" resulted in one (1) transaction.
If you want proof of Europe's strategic irrelevance on #Iran, read this excellent obituary for INSTEX.
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INSTEX is shutting down.
My thoughts on why the special purpose vehicle to protect European trade with Iran failed and what it means for the future of European economic sovereignty.
bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2023/
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INSTEX is shutting down.
My thoughts on why the special purpose vehicle to protect European trade with Iran failed and what it means for the future of European economic sovereignty.
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"Uzbekistan will reportedly import Russian gas for the first time to combat energy shortages amid a historic plunge in temperatures that has severely strained the country’s energy resources and infrastructure."
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He is not an Auschwitz prisoner. He is imprisoned in the Islamic Republic, for opposing the compulsory hijab in Iran.
#FarhadMeysami
#فرهاد_میثمی
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At the presumed end of the #JCPOA era (2003-2022), , with , assesses strengths, limits and future of #EU policy towards #Iran
jointproject.eu/2023/02/01/the
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Among people who work on Iran policy, is in a class apart. This tremendous and deeply personal essay is a perfect demonstration of that fact.
This is an essay we will be talking about for years to come.
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I made a similar argument back in 2020 to explain the apparent warming of Iran-GCC ties and the signs that the GCC was coming to see the value of the JCPOA in a world where it was pursuing closer ties with Israel.
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1. It's pretty clear that Iran *benefits* from normalized ties between UAE and Israel and it's important to recognize that the UAE has taken this step in the context of clear efforts over the last year to reopen dialogue with Iran as well.
Iran anticipated this development.
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Very much agree with 's assessment here that the Abraham Accords made the UAE take "part ownership of Israel’s more contentious relationships, with the Palestinians and with Iran."
Netanyahu is a liability for Iran-GCC deescalation efforts.
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التصعيد الخطير الذي تشهده المنطقة في أكثر من موقع ومنها التفجير الذي استهدف أصفهان ليس من مصلحة المنطقة ومستقبلها، وبالرغم من أن مشاكل المنطقة معقدة ومركبة إلا أنه لا بديل عن الحوار والحلول السياسية لتجنب التصعيد والوصول إلى حلول تسهم في تخفيف التوترات وتحفظ استقرار وأمن الإقليم
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While the big driver of that shift has been Iran's alienation of European governments through the drone sales to Russia, the repression, and the dual nationals issue, I actually think Malley deserves a lot of credit.
He knows how to work with the Europeans. They like him.
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I've participated in several Track 1.5 meetings since September. It's absolutely true that the US and Europe are on the same page with regards to Iran policy.
It is also true that Iran's leadership has taken note. Things are very different now compared to the Trump years...
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Today, we are united in an unprecedented way with our partners in Europe & elsewhere on all aspects of our Iran policy. Iran’s leadership is hearing in one voice, loud and clear, about the consequences of its continuing on its current path.
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I spoke to about how economic hardship is constraining political action in Iran.
An Iranian student quoted in Sune’s report really summed it up:
“Many people say that if they get killed in the protest, their family will die of hunger.”
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Earlier today, a friend pointed out that no emerging market asset manager has filled the void created by the collapse of Abraaj five years ago.
Naqvi made a lot of mistakes, but he had built something unique. EMs would benefit if there were more big institutional players.
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1. Iran is set to experience its third "sanctions shock" in a decade. But this shock won't be like the ones endured under Obama and Trump.
Sanctions aren't being imposed. They're remaining in place. Sentiments will be more negative because there's no relief on the horizon.
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This, put simply, sets an insanely high standard for excellence in financial reporting.
It is by far the best account of how the global oil market has adapted to the sanctions on Russia that at least I have read.
Exceptional work.
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9. But every economic shock leaves scars. Iran is about to experience its third in a decade.
The Iran we will be left with at the end of this shock will not be the relatively prosperous, relatively optimistic country of the first decade of the millennium.
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8. I'm not saying the Iranian people are giving up. There is still a lot of tenacity on display and in many respects "life goes on" even as the economy remains in crisis. The industry may rebound again. It's remarkable how few manufacturing firms actually folded under sanctions.
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7. Add to that the diminished capacity for economic policymaking, owing to growing dysfunction and corruption, and there is little to suggest that Iran's government can engineer a soft landing.
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6. But the failure to restore the nuclear deal under Biden has completely changed the outlook for Iran. The sanctions are *remaining in place* and that is itself shocking, both economically and psychologically. The impact on the behavior of households and firms will be profound.
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5. Under Trump's maximum pressure, there was always a notion that the sanctions would be undone. Whether Trump struck a new deal or the old deal survived his term, we were always talking about the sanctions as a temporary setback, albeit one with major consequences.
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4. There are limits to that resolve. Both because of what macroeconomic factors like chronic inflation mean for real wages + purchasing power, but also because of psychological factors. How long will Iranians have to endure these economic pressures? The end is no longer in sight.
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3. Iran's manufacturing sector has shown a lot of resilience under sanctions, but the real source of this resilience has been the *resolve* of ordinary people who woke up every day to toil for wages so that they could try to maintain their consumption, their standard of living.
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2. Recent purchasing managers' index data still shows Iran's manufacturing sector in expansion, but just barely. The PMI survey indicates that manufacturers continue to face cost pressures, but are also facing new headwinds related to softening demand.
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1. Iran is set to experience its third "sanctions shock" in a decade. But this shock won't be like the ones endured under Obama and Trump.
Sanctions aren't being imposed. They're remaining in place. Sentiments will be more negative because there's no relief on the horizon.
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"China hit back at a report that the US has confronted it with evidence suggesting some of its state-owned firms may be helping Russia’s war in Ukraine"
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Internationally traded food prices have steadily declined over recent months.
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Some news:
Yesterday was my last day as a postdoc at .
Today, I started a new position as an Analyst at . I'll be covering #Iran while also working as a member of EG's energy, commodities, and /resources team.
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“90 percent of Mongolia’s exports go to China and Mongolia is wholly dependent on Russia in terms of fuel...But Mongolia is a parliamentary democracy and [our] people’s mindset & society is very different... we're landlocked, but we’re not mind-locked.”
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