How long will the shutdown take? Short segment from my call with
Conversation
"if you isolate everyone in their home and you wait 2 weeks, then you know everyone who is sick basically"
uhh, what? how would you know? do you mean "isolate and also test everyone"?
One thing that isn't yet clear is what happens when, after 2 weeks+ of quarantine, infectious people interact with uninfected people? Will the virus not spread exponentially again, albeit at lower magnitude, and still threaten the most vulnerable? Questions not rhetorical.
1
1
I think upfront if economies slammed the brakes on the western world they would have stopped the bulk of this in a month. It would have a better end outcome than dragging it on with gradually stricter measures. Slow and steady does not win this race to containment/stoppage...
1
14
This would assume that after the shutdown you can track all infected cases and their contacts. Many countries do not have this capacity, technologically, politicaly or economically.
5
7
The idea does not need perfect execution. My point, TK tomorrow.
2
16
Isn't this ignoring the fact that incubation periods as long as 27 days have been observed?
This whole idea falls if just a handful of the extra long incubation cases reignite the outbreak
1
1
Absolutely correct. But it requires a uniform, nationwide response to #CoronavirusOutbreak. Everyone has to go into lockdown in order to identify and quarantine the patients, as in #China 🇨🇳 & #SouthKorea 🇰🇷.
1/
2
1
What do you two think of this opinion?
Isn’t the 2-4 week assessment dependent on testing at full capacity? If it takes another week or so to ramp up testing, wouldn’t that push the total time to 5-6 weeks.
