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I have been working on pandemic outbreaks for 15 years. There is a misunderstanding of the difference between the response in much of the West, versus successful countries (including New Zealand and Australia). Summarizing: 1.Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented. 1/-
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Yaneer Bar-Yam heeft geretweet
Heads up, Chicago! To all
@ChiPubSchools parents and families: Join us on 10/1. International Parent Strike happening next Friday, October 1st. Keep your kids home and send protest letter to schools, district, Mayor, Governor. More details to come soon.
#Parentstrike2021pic.twitter.com/TFv46rdCwN
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Yaneer Bar-Yam heeft geretweet
Thread: Breakthrough infections Article: Breakthrough cases are a bigger problem than you’ve heard. Key point: Vaccination reduces the risk of Delta infections by 2X. But what about severity? See also article, but let's look at important CDC data 1/https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/breakthrough-covid-19-cases-may-be-a-bigger-problem.html …
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Yaneer Bar-Yam heeft geretweet
Day 18 of Covid delta 17 variant: still have a cough, no smell, exhaustion, and if I take a deep breath my whole chest hurts (latest is a more recent development). It is NOT the flu/cold we all get every year when schools reopen
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Yaneer Bar-Yam heeft geretweet
“One of the first obligations of a civil society is to protect its most vulnerable.” Arizona, keep standing up for public health & protecting our children.
@Right2SafeAzhttps://twitter.com/chris_coppola/status/1442163996954554368 …
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Combining these two points, vaccinations continue to provide important protection, but the combined result of having Delta and vaccination doesn’t improve the situation over the original variant without vaccination. It may even make it worse depending on behavioral choices. 12/
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So protection from infection is a matter of behavior choice and time, and severity of cases is what matters to the outcome of the infections that do happen. Since the severity is 2X higher for Delta and 2.5-3X lower by vaccination, there hasn’t been an improvement overall. 11/
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From reported superspreader events most people can be infected, so individual differences don’t matter much. So increasing the number of exposures counters the 2X reduction from vaccination over the same period of time. And the risk over time continues to increase. 10/
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If a person reduces protection by a change in behavior, they increase their risk, countering the reduction from the vaccination. How big is that effect? It depends on the change in behavior and the role of individual differences. 9/
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Also, for infection rate, exposure over time matters. Risk reduction over a period of time does not mean that infection won’t happen if exposure continues. Exposure also depends on behavior. 8/
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So Delta's increase in severity counters vaccination's reduction of severity to essentially a wash. [For clarity: Without vaccination you get the 2X increase in severity. So vaccination does help.] 7/
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There is more however. Delta is more severe by about 2X, perhaps higher. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2 … https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext … https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00580-6/fulltext … https://www.ajog.org/action/showPdf?pii=S0002-9378%2821%2901005-X … (one study says no difference https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.02.21263014v1 …) 6/
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The reduction in infection rate is 10-20X pre Delta and 2X with Delta and declines by waning. The reduction in severity of infections that do occur according to above data is 2.5-3X Combine these two for a reduction of severe cases by 5-6X. Important, but not a solution. 5/
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Most of the rest of the report gives raw figures, not the risk ratios that you want to know. In summary, there are two different effects, the rate of infection reduction, and the rate of severity reduction once you have an infection. 4/
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According to these numbers the ratio of unvaccinated to vaccinated hospitalizations is 7.6%/3.2% = 2.4X, ICU cases 1.5%/0.5% = 3X, and ventilations 0.5%/0.2% = 2.5X. So the ratios are about 2.5-3X reduction in severity due to vaccination. 3/
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Key CDC data: “percentages of fully vaccinated persons infected…were hospitalized (3.2%), were admitted to an intensive care unit (0.5%), and required mechanical ventilation (0.2%) compared with…unvaccinated (7.6%, 1.5%, and 0.5%, respectively)” 2/https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm …
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Thread: Breakthrough infections Article: Breakthrough cases are a bigger problem than you’ve heard. Key point: Vaccination reduces the risk of Delta infections by 2X. But what about severity? See also article, but let's look at important CDC data 1/https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/breakthrough-covid-19-cases-may-be-a-bigger-problem.html …
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When there is a solution to a problem, all of a sudden the situation changes for the better. Masks matter, and the type of mask matters.https://twitter.com/LazarusLong13/status/1439816663721938949 …
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Yaneer Bar-Yam heeft geretweet
How do we stop
#COVID19 globally—with community action. I gave a talk to the@TheWHN global community, devoted to protecting health & minimizing harm to individuals and society—a people’s pandemic task force. Listen—https://youtu.be/JHuEqSHYfvA Join—http://worldhealthnetwork.global /@TheWHNpic.twitter.com/IyWSff3YPX
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Yaneer Bar-Yam heeft geretweet
Paul Hamill, 46, was a disciple of covid sceptic Ivor Cummins. The father-of-two promoted him with religious zeal. Last month he got covid & was hospitalised; now he's dead. A tragic story of mistrust, misinformation, & money - lots of it for Cummins...https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/Sam-mcbride/dup-councillor-paul-hamill-was-a-disciple-of-covid-sceptic-ivor-cummins-and-now-hes-dead-after-contracting-covid-40886874.html …
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