Yaneer Bar-Yam

@yaneerbaryam

Physicist studying the space of possibilities and social challenges: Dependencies, patterns, emergence, complexity, and using them for better decisions

linkedin.com/in/yaneerbaryam
Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2011.
236 fotografija ili videozapisa Fotografije i videozapisi

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    16. pro 2019.

    New paper “An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and its Applications”--“assumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background, so that it may be accessible to ... anyone who is interested in systems and society”

    25 replies 277 proslijeđenih tweetova 878 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  2. prije 12 sati

    I guess the objective was to get a paper in NEJM: Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed

    5 replies 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 23 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. sij

    Piece on Pandemics and Coronavirus: For extreme events the response has to be extreme. Getting ahead of exponential outbreaks requires it. And it CAN be done.

    12 replies 71 proslijeđeni tweet 175 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  4. prije 19 sati

    For Bostonians at the Globe

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  5. prije 19 sati

    Also at (open access)

    9 proslijeđenih tweetova 25 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  6. prije 23 sata

    The key is that we have choices about how deadly it will be.

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 26 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  7. prije 23 sata

    "The Deadliest virus we face is Complacency" by Niall Ferguson "I have seen a few rash commentators downplaying the danger...We don’t know enough yet to say how bad this will be."

    7 replies 31 proslijeđeni tweet 147 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  8. prije 23 sata

    In a multiscale approach, neighborhoods having passed 14 days without a case can be released from quarantine in Wuhan. Setting up a neighborhood monitoring and release process can reduce the strain on people and economic impacts.

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 41 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  9. 3. velj

    Apologies the numbers listed 1.5 / 1.14 are per day not per generation.

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  10. 3. velj

    Main conclusion: The new slower growth rate may enable additional interventions to stop the outbreak. A lot is being done already so fine tuning the community efforts, and the government efforts is key.

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  11. 3. velj

    BREAKING: Update on China case count. It is reasonably clear the data shows a change of growth rate (R0) on 1/27 from about 1.5 to about 1.14. See second figure of new confirmed cases (blue dots) and lines.

    8 proslijeđenih tweetova 32 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  12. 2. velj

    To clarify: This is about the cases other than in China. There are two possible reasons for exponential growth: (1) Transmission locally in other parts of the world, and (2) Constant transportation rates and exponential growth in China. Neither are true.

    1 reply 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  13. 2. velj

    I have no information about the book but the critique of equilibrium thinking is worth noting

    Since there is NO equilibrium, textbooks like this, which are based on the equilibrium fairy tale, should be binned immediately, in the interests of enhancing productivity.
    5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  14. 2. velj

    This is the essence of global connectivity.

    11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  15. 2. velj

    Update on global cases of Wuhan Coronavirus. Figs show an increase in past two days of 26 and 27 cases. Concerning, and global reporting may still be weak, but this is not an exponential growth. Action to stop the outbreak may still be possible.

    6 replies 7 proslijeđenih tweetova 39 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  16. 2. velj

    Heads up: The area of DRC that is still affected by Ebola today also has a lot of commerce with China.

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  17. 2. velj

    The main point is that this is second stage interventions. The first stage--lockdown of Wuhan and other cities--had impact. Whether it was enough is unclear but unlikely. There is need for another round of interventions to ensure the outbreak stops.

    1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  18. 2. velj

    Hospital built in days in China is now operational

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  19. 2. velj

    (note also report on study in Lancet using unconfirmed assumptions "that each infected person could have passed the virus to 2.68 others." Note the two digits of accuracy for a highly unkown number. Speculations for number of infected given exponential growth can be very wrong)

    1 reply 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  20. 2. velj

    Wuhan announces quarantine of suspected cases and those in contact with known cases

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  21. 2. velj

    The WHO is taking a constructive approach: "Until [containment] is impossible, we should keep trying"

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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