I was in Beijing in 2003 during #SARS. Everything was on lockdown, everybody stayed inside. Ironically, I ended up visiting the Forbidden City, which had never been so empty and less forbidden. Friends got infected, some died, some got lung problems forever. 10% death rate.
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618 people are reportedly infected as of this morning and about ~3% have already died, ~2% are cured, the vast majority of people are in the hospitals being watched; ~100 people out of the 618 are on life support. I'm certain all these numbers are massively under-estimated.
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Hospitals are reportedly full, doctors and nurses are also infected. A friend forwarded me this. I don't know who took it but would not surprise me if this were common in hospitals.pic.twitter.com/GKWVb7GkOC
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It’s been less than 2 weeks and cases are being reported in many countries, in the US, Japan, Singapore etc. 3 cities are already on lockdown, which is unprecedented.
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Why am I scaring you? Everybody needs to be careful and take this seriously. Disease has no boarder and does not care about who you are and what you do.
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I’m following this author who’s estimating only 5.1% of infections are identified. He predicts 191,529 infections by 4 Feb, i.e. in 10 days. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 …pic.twitter.com/IvlJw8UqwX
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Official data from China, seems like R0 maybe is around 2. 52 death and 32 cured, 1052 confirmed cases.pic.twitter.com/mGttpmMkmg
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Finally a peer-reviewed article in the New England Journal of Medicine. Author estimated R0 to be 2.2 (1 person will spread to 2.2 persons) and the epidemic doubled every 7.4 days. Some patients can present with gastrointestinal symptoms, and asymptomatic infections reported.pic.twitter.com/eTZ2Sogyip
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End of conversation
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Been like this since the beginning. Just treat everyone as if they are carriers. Be wary of masks with valves, for this reason.
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