I respect Jacob a lot but I find it really difficult to engage with predictions of LLM capabilities that presume some version of the scaling hypothesis will continue to hold - it just seems highly implausible given everything we already know about the limits of transformers!
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Some disconcerting predictions about developments in large language modes over the next 7 years from @JacobSteinhardt: bounded-regret.ghost.io/what-will-gpt-






