one of my takeaways from the rolling onset of *broad public awareness* of the pandemic was that you can be late relative to your clued-in friends and still absolutely scorch the median response https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1243624237933289472 …
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Replying to @sonyasupposedly
The only thing following weird/clued in Twitter allowed me to get right was to do my prepping 1/2 weeks before supermarket shelves were cleared.
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Replying to @xstntlprvrt69
that's pretty much all you *can* get right. hopefully it also impressed upon you the efficacy of masks and social/physical distancing
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Replying to @sonyasupposedly
I can say I didn't spread any bad/dangerous takes. I was silent about things I was agnostic about. Didn't LARP as an epidemiologist. This is small virtue: I'm not a journalist or public intellectual.
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Replying to @xstntlprvrt69 @sonyasupposedly
Here is my assessment of why I got it wrong: 1) Most of the smart people I follow had techier/mathier backgrounds than me. I don't understand stats models. 2) I simply modelled from my own historical experience, which was that SARS/Ebola/Swine flu didn't turn serious.
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Replying to @xstntlprvrt69
ah. you were trying to determine, "will this happen?" wrong question. could this happen, *might* this happen, that's the right question
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Replying to @sonyasupposedly
It's not a terribly admirable thing to admit, but if I'd had more "skin in the game" (been in a high risk group) I might have taken it more seriously and been willing to pay a higher social cost to bug out early.
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I would also like to think the same would be true if I worked with high risk populations (seniors, immuno compromised).
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