one of my takeaways from the rolling onset of *broad public awareness* of the pandemic was that you can be late relative to your clued-in friends and still absolutely scorch the median response https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1243624237933289472 …
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Here is my assessment of why I got it wrong: 1) Most of the smart people I follow had techier/mathier backgrounds than me. I don't understand stats models. 2) I simply modelled from my own historical experience, which was that SARS/Ebola/Swine flu didn't turn serious.
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ah. you were trying to determine, "will this happen?" wrong question. could this happen, *might* this happen, that's the right question
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> This is small virtue: I'm not a journalist or public intellectual. no, that is large virtue
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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