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MAR forced by GFS suggests that the highest melt extent over Antarctica in the modern area (>1979) has been reached on 24-Dec-2019 with ~15%. From Nov 2019 until today, the production of melt water is also a record with 230% higher than average but the melting season is not endedpic.twitter.com/MT0QKCJ47e
For the 1st time also, the melt process explains the negative anomaly of the current Antarctica SMB. It should be noted that this process is currently missing in most of SMB estimations over Antarctica as melt has been negligible until now. But the climate is changing....pic.twitter.com/dT5g3zl4T4
Finally, it is important to note that we here compare MAR forced by GFS (in forecast mode) vs MAR forced by ERA5 (in hindcast) model. The same MAR version is used but the change of forcing (after Oct 2019) could impact the result. Source of figures: http://climato.be/ant
Be careful that 1. it is fully model based estimate 2. we need to wait reanalysis or satellite observations for having a more robust product 3. it is out of the current trend observed from 30 yrs (such melt was not observed previous summers and needs to be confirmed next summers)
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/ … Antarctic sea ice extent is currently the 2nd lowest
Are there already data for the mass balance (GRACE)?
We need to wait the availability of the ERA5 reanalysis over the full melting season to give our final numbers. But it is should be certainly interesting also to validate these model estimates with satellite data (melt extent and GRACE) when they become available.
You might get through to a few more people if you'd define those acronyms. It's worth the space!
SMB = surface mass balance ~ mass gained by snowfall - mass lost by meltwater runoff ERA5 = the ERA5 reanalysis from ECMWF: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5 … GFS = the American Global Forecast Model https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System …
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