This was true with 2016 election coverage. Clinton's polling lead was flimsy if you looked at it rigorously (Trump within margin of error, Electoral College problems in Midwest, lots of undecideds, volatile race). But a lot of news outlets didn't scratch beneath the surface.https://twitter.com/saletan/status/942099208781299712 …
Most liberals I know expected Moore to win, in part based on polling averages. I don't think "liberal claims" is the right category for the mistake the news made with 2016 polling. The media just doesn't have a template for the "30% chance of Trump" story.
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I really appreciate the "just a normal polling error away" template in 538's coverage, but you have to admit it's innovative and based on thinking about what polls really mean a lot.
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Also I worry that the "normal polling error away" doesn't convey the serious implications enough.
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It's closer than "Hillary's definitely gonna win cuz the polling is really robust"
End of conversation
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