In Montana: Trump: 279k Hillary: 177k Gianforte: 189k Quist: 166k Most Hillary voters stuck with Quist. Almost 100k Trump voters dropped.
I think you're injecting more uncertainty into those numbers than is warranted. There's some questions, but they're stark.
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I just don't think they're overly surprising. Non-Trump voters are very vocal/political right now. Makes sense a higher % would go vote rn
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