"uncertainty is normally distributed" why's that?
Nate's model seems like yet another mistaken assumption that a distribution is a bell curve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law#Examples …
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actually uses t distribution w heavier tails http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/ …
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I know. My critique is about distributions that are symmetrical vs. ones that aren't (bell/t vs. power/lognormal)
End of conversation
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