I'm not talking about the polls themselves; I'm talking about the interpretation of them as more or less an indicator of what's possible.
MoEs don't average like that but give me a sec to be more specific.
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I've already said I wouldn't give it a high probability right now. My point is the probability is clearly nonzero.
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Anyway, while I appreciate the thoughts, I think we've exhausted this topic for tonight. Have a good one!
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thanks as always :)
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btw I'd welcome any falsifiable claim (by the results of the election) if you think of any.
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I don't think there is one. That's not how probability works, right :)?
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I'll make one: Jill Stein will not reach 5% in the election.

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if I'm falsified it will change my worldview.

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Just as long as you don't take her *not* getting there as proof that your worldview is right
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