there's a lot of really good evidence about the range of expected polling misses as you get closer to an election.
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Replying to @wycats @BenSpielberg
do you have any cases at all of minor party candidates polling at ~2% a week out and then going on to capture 5%?
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Replying to @wycats
No, but there are examples of major polling errors. Also, I don't see the benefit of writing it off as an impossible outcome.
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Replying to @BenSpielberg
people should be honest about the range of available benefits and costs in their control.
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Replying to @wycats
Sure, & I said: I don't expect it, it's worth working towards still, & how likely it is doesn't affect what I'm going to do.
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Replying to @BenSpielberg
right. I'm only responding to a specific moral appeal you made. It feels off to me so I was checking :)
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Replying to @wycats @BenSpielberg
I certainly expect you to vote for
@DrJillStein for the reasons you already enumerated, but that wasn't this argument.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @wycats
Okay, sure, but I also already explained this argument. I am appealing to the voting bloc that could bring her up to 5%.
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Replying to @BenSpielberg @wycats
There are enough people in the "potentially support Stein" audience that she could get there if they agreed with this argument.
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Replying to @BenSpielberg
I think I'd accept a few poll showing a gap below 5% made up by undecideds expressing a willingness to vote
@DrJillStein1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
(it should be clear that this is a good faith statement; I could believe polls show this)
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