you think doing a @NateSilver538 analysis would put her chance of >5% at more than tiny? Not trolling, serious q
perhaps ironically, "polls are self-fulfilling" is the OPPOSITE of the correct conclusion from primary season (think about it)
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I'm not talking about the polls themselves; I'm talking about the interpretation of them as more or less an indicator of what's possible.
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there's a lot of really good evidence about the range of expected polling misses as you get closer to an election.
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do you have any cases at all of minor party candidates polling at ~2% a week out and then going on to capture 5%?
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No, but there are examples of major polling errors. Also, I don't see the benefit of writing it off as an impossible outcome.
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people should be honest about the range of available benefits and costs in their control.
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Sure, & I said: I don't expect it, it's worth working towards still, & how likely it is doesn't affect what I'm going to do.
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right. I'm only responding to a specific moral appeal you made. It feels off to me so I was checking :)
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I certainly expect you to vote for
@DrJillStein for the reasons you already enumerated, but that wasn't this argument. - 4 more replies
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