Jonathan ErdmanVerified account

@wxjerdman

Senior Meteorologist. MS ; BS ; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Views are my own.

Milwaukee, WI
weather.com
Joined December 2009
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  1. 12 hours ago

    Five too many...sigh.

    Family portrait of the Category 4+ hurricane landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico region since 2017.
    1 like
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  2. 13 hours ago

    On 9/11, Erin was about 500 miles off the East Coast. Almost exactly on 10-year anniversary, Hurricane Katia was in a similar location. And now...almost exactly on 20-year anniversary, is in a similar location, though farther east. Strange coincidence.

    10 replies 37 retweets 143 likes
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  3. 14 hours ago

    Some rain totals over 0.25 inch now over parts of Northern Calif. and southern Oregon. It's been awhile since I've seen that.

    1 retweet 4 likes
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  4. 15 hours ago

    Remember, you don't need a strong cyclone for a serious flash threat.

    A storm could form in the western Gulf of Mexico as soon as Sunday. A Gulf Coast rainfall threat is in play, regardless.
    4 likes
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  5. 15 hours ago

    Today, will flirt with its latest-in-season 100˚ high on record, which was set just last year on Sept. 5, 2020. That was their all-time Sept. record (101˚). Prior to 2019, they had never reached 100˚ in Sept. (Usual caveats about Denver weather obs applies.)

    2 retweets 5 likes
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  6. 16 hours ago

    Per NOAA's database, could become the first to landfall in Newfoundland since Igor in 2010. (Though 2014's Gonzalo did pass just southeast of Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula.)

    A warning is in effect for southeast Newfoundland, including the provincial capital of St. John's, as accelerates toward a landfall tonight.
    2 retweets 4 likes
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  7. 18 hours ago

    Fingers crossed that at least some measurable rain may keep the number of fire starts relatively low. 🤞🏼

    0:35
    Another view of the high-based thunderstorms moving over Sonoma County this morning from Mt. St. Helena during the past hour. Thunderstorm activity over this region should diminish and shift eastward in the next hour or two.
    1 retweet 5 likes
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  8. 18 hours ago

    Development in W. Gulf early next week looking more probable. Upper trough/low backs away into northern MX/west TX ("good shear"/ventilation scenario). Gulf water in mid-Sept. plenty warm. Regardless, heavy rain, flash potential near TX, LA Gulf Coast early next week.

    2 retweets 1 like
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  9. 18 hours ago

    Looks like (Cat. 2, 100 mph landfall) was the strongest to strike Los Cabos, MX since Odile in 2014. Heavy rain, strong winds still lashing the southern Baja.

    1 reply 5 retweets 13 likes
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  10. Sep 8

    Heavy rain and flash threats don't depend on the intensity of a cyclone and are in play over northern FL, south GA, perhaps southern SC. Other than that, it's more "Meh-ndy" than .

    2 retweets 4 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Sep 8

    September 8th, 1900 - "The Great Storm of 1900", a Category 4 hurricane made landfall in Galveston, Texas, on this day in 1900. This hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000 individuals, making it the deadliest US Atlantic hurricane on record. Graphic by

    1 reply 26 retweets 62 likes
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  12. Sep 8

    Per NWS, a hospital roof was damaged and widespread tree and power line damage was reported yesterday in Gibson City, about 25 miles NNW of Champaign.

    0:17
    High winds in Gibson City from earlier storm. Estimated 70 mph +
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  13. Sep 7

    Tomer, as always, with good perspective, here, re: . If only we had recon in the Philippine Sea. Would like to see how this measured up to 1983's Forrest (100mb pressure plunge in 24 hours).

    For context, I looked at intensification rates as a function of duration (hours) over the last 30 years of West Pacific tropical cyclones. Chanthu isn't record breaking, but it's certainly among the highest percentiles of short-term intensification rates.
    Show this thread
    4 likes
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  14. Sep 7

    Another week, another rapid intensification. was a mere tropical storm 24 hours ago, and tropical depression 30 hours ago. Now (as of 21z Tue), a Cat. 4. Is RI becoming the rule, not exception?

    5 retweets 9 likes
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  15. Sep 7

    UPDATE: Now a report of grapefruit size (4.5 inch diameter) earlier today just N of Appleton, WI. Per NCEI's database, this may be the largest hailstone in WI in over 14 years, since a 5.5-inch stone in Port Edwards on June 7, 2007.

    5 retweets 8 likes
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  16. Sep 7

    Today I (re)learned... 8 U.S. East Coast deaths in dangerous surf were attributed to Lorenzo in 2019. Lorenzo's center never got any closer than ~2,000 miles from the East Coast.

    won't threaten the U.S. East Coast. But the past two hurricane seasons have proven that distant hurricanes can still be a danger in one regard.
    1 retweet 2 likes
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  17. Sep 7

    Hail that large is fairly rare in WI. Only happened 21 other times in the state from 1960 - May 2021, per NCEI. Last time: Aug. 2, 2015 in Oconto Co. (Disclaimer: I don't recall if such an event happened earlier this summer somewhere in the state.)

    Softball-size hail in Wisconsin! Yikes! via
    2 retweets 7 likes
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  18. Sep 7

    Incoming… Wind-driven may not be great for the car my daughter drove to school today. 😆

    3 likes
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  19. Sep 2

    One virtual certainty... ...the name won't be used for another Atlantic named storm beyond 2021.

    6 replies 52 retweets 225 likes
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  20. Sep 2

    Per , Mullica Hill, NJ will be rated at least EF3. That strong a tornado spawned from a cyclone is exceedingly rare, according to research from NOAA/SPC's Roger Edwards. Only 3 of those TC-spawned F/EF3s from 1995-2019.

    Breakdowns by F/EF ratings. A TC tornado was rated EF-unknown in 2019. Overwhelming majority are EF0 to 1 "weak" but still can be dangerous! More...
    Show this thread
    1 reply 6 retweets 12 likes
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