Here is the thought process of Dem strategists: 1. "We have limited messaging bandwidth." 2. "Polls show health care is our strongest issue." 3. "Therefore we should focus exclusively on health care, no matter what." But there's a problem, which is: THIS IS NOT HOW POLLS WORK.
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Polls can show which of two things is more popular. But they're not omniscient. They necessarily test a limited universe of ideas. They give a momentary snapshot - descriptive, not prescriptive. They can't forecast changes to an issue's salience.
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For example: The GOP polls very well on the economy right now. But it hasn't mattered that much, because with everything else that's going on, people aren't paying close attention to the economy! It's a less salient issue than usual.
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Or remember Brett Kavanaugh. No poll would have predicted his confirmation would become an all-consuming national political battle - something that may have reshaped both party's midterm prospects. But once events developed and battle lines were drawn, everything changed.
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Despite this, some Democrats have outsourced their ENTIRE POLITICAL MESSAGE to a handful of polls that give Dems a small edge on health care compared to other issues. Fixated on this result, strategists have seemingly decreed: health care is the only thing we should talk about.
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Health care is important, but it's also been mostly out of the headlines for a year. It's a complicated policy issue and there's a lot of other, terrifying stuff happening. Look at the intensity of the Kavanaugh debate: voters don’t only care about “pocketbook” issues!
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Meanwhile, Democrats have completely given up on common-sense lines of attack that could move votes. The Republican president is immersed in endless scandal. Rather than talk about any of it, Dems are obsessively focusing on an issue that's been off the radar since fall 2017.
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I mean, don't take my word for it. Here's Brian Schatz saying outright that Dems should ignore any current events in favor of health care:https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1052228335160320000 …
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It's wild! There's a reason it's common sense to make hay of your opponent's scandals: it works! The torrent of scandal is why the GOP has been underperforming despite a good economy - the centuries of accumulated wisdom here are more reliable than narrow issue polling!
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But that's a thing about too many modern campaigns: they fetishize "data" and "polls" to the exclusion of common sense and critical thinking, assuming math is a silver bullet. Too many Dems are in thrall to this approach, outsourcing core questions of strategy to blind metrics.
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We're at a bizarre pass, where the GOP is a roiling sea of scandal, and it's the DEMOCRATS who are trying desperately to change the subject. They've acting like a zombie party, plodding forward as the country falls apart around them, and calling it message discipline.
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They may eke out a win anyway. But brainlessly following the polls wherever they lead, instead of using your god-given critical faculties to push your advantage or participate proactively in politics, is a great way to waste a very favorable political moment.
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Please note: now that the bloodless health care message has predictably turned out to be completely invisible against the president’s incitement to race war, liberals are making excuses about the media and saying “well, if you think about it, it’s basically about Trump”pic.twitter.com/N7NVlqEnxZ
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As if we are to believe Democrats didn’t choose health care as a theme specifically to avoid confronting Trump
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Okay, since Jake Tapper RTed this and 50,000 people are seeing it instead of the expected 50, I want to reiterate that I am not saying Dems should abandon health care. I am saying that a singular focus on one non-Trump policy issue is not wise, with so many live issues right now
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End of conversation
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