Chances are you've seen a version of this and graphic before. These numbers may be drastically overestimating the chances of survival. Here's why:
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When we produced this graphic for #DangerousbyDesign, we (like many other recent versions of it you've seen!) cited a NTSB study from 2017. ntsb.gov/safety/safety-
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But the same data has been cited elsewhere in other studies for 20+ years now!
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This data came from a USDOT report from 2000! 
image from San Francisco’s Vision Zero plan
image from San Francisco’s Vision Zero planShow this thread
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But the original source is not NTSB, USDOT, or even an agency on this continent. In that 2017 study, it references this 1995 (!!!) study from the EU: "Reducing Traffic Injuries Resulting From Excess and Inappropriate Speed" archive.etsc.eu/documents/Redu
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So this data describes your chance of survival on
a) typical EU roads in the early 90s
b) when struck by a car that most likely looked like this Peugot
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Here in 2022 in the US of A, you're increasingly likely to be hit by a vehicle (at any speed) that looks more like this. (After all, they don't even know you're there.) smartgrowthamerica.org/bigger-vehicle
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So, would the results in 2022 in America would look the same as in the early 90s in the EU? 🤔🤔🤔
It's time for some enterprising researchers and academicians to make an update. Or for to charter some badly needed research.
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By all means, we should all keep tapping this sign. But yell it from the rooftops: these percentages are probably way too low, and we should fight like hell to use design to lower speeds on every road where people are present.
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Great way to describe the continued usefulness of the chart overall, even with old data. 👇
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Replying to @whiteknuckled @T4America and @completestreets
This graph is useful for estimating the human tolerance for blunt force trauma but we do need new graphs that accurately plot the crash force of US vehicles. @gspeng
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This graph is useful for estimating the human tolerance for blunt force trauma but we do need new graphs that accurately plot the crash force of US vehicles.
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