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wfrhatch's profile
Warren Hatch
Warren Hatch
Warren Hatch
@wfrhatch

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Warren Hatch

@wfrhatch

CEO and Superforecaster at Good Judgment

Joined February 2011

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    Warren Hatch‏ @wfrhatch Jan 20
    • Report Tweet

    The new @Davos Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some @superforecaster rigor. What's the implied probability of: "More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32) @PTetlock @dgardner

    1:18 PM - 20 Jan 2020
    • 7 Retweets
    • 19 Likes
    • PredictIt Brett Specter Rhea Katsanakis Rodrigo Basil Marte Ian Pitchford Michael Bishop Ian Bright Gordon Huang
    13 replies 7 retweets 19 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Mary Pat Campbell‏ @meepbobeep Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @superforecaster and

        over what time horizon?

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Warren Hatch‏ @wfrhatch Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @meepbobeep @superforecaster and

        Alas, the @wef folks didn't include a time horizon or other details like that.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 4 more replies
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      2. David Fisher‏ @fisherdbus Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @Davos and

        You do not specify in what time frame.

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Warren Hatch‏ @wfrhatch Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @fisherdbus @Davos and

        An excellent point. There should be a date. And a clear threshold to resolve the question. @Davos didn't supply those kinds of details, so we just have to use our best judgment given the context. It'd be great if the experts there provided needed specificity and we could relaunch

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Dan Gardner‏ @dgardner Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @Davos and

        You need another possible answer: "All of the above, like Schrodinger's cat."

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. John Carlos Baez‏ @johncarlosbaez Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky and

        The probability that insurance will be unaffordable or unavailable to *someone*? To a *randomly chosen* would-be purchaser of insurance? To *everyone*? I guess the 2nd one is the most plausible interpretation.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. KMorrell‏ @morrellkc Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @Davos and

        Needs end date, spatial limits, a definition of what type of insurance (does state-provided catastrophic insurance count when no commercial insurance is available?), and some sort of definition of unaffordable. Commercial ins. already difficult in some places

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Brett Bowman‏ @BioInfoBrett Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky and

        An excellent question for predictions, but should probably be a little narrower for easier testing. I'd suggest: Repeat this question a few times for various at-risk areas (i.e. California fire country & Florida Hurricane country) and various time-frames (5/10/15 yrs)

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Andrew Conway‏ @AndrewConway Jan 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky and

        It depends where you live. Insurance is getting pretty expensive in hurricane zones.

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      1. Harriet‏ @Harriet35929613 Jan 21
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky and

        Is there a definition of unaffordable? How big percentage of population is required to stop paying insurace?

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