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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Luke O'Brien‏ @luke_j_obrien 11 May 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Luke O'Brien Retweeted Randy Olson

      So this is one of the big issues when you try to predict casualty rates from things like nuclear attacks: the population varies widely depending on time of day, and often the population data only accounts for either averages or census data.https://twitter.com/randal_olson/status/994319644944052224 …

      Luke O'Brien added,

      Randy Olson @randal_olson
      The population of #Manhattan, hour-by-hour. #NYC #dataviz https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/8hys9k/the_city_is_alive_the_population_of_manhattan/ … pic.twitter.com/ov3xTQlVm0
      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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    2. Luke O'Brien‏ @luke_j_obrien 11 May 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Perfect example: if you set off a nuclear weapon at Union Station in DC at 8am, the casualty rates would be much higher than doing it at 2am. But if you use census data, the casualty figures are going to give you numbers essentially equivalent to the later time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Luke O'Brien‏ @luke_j_obrien 11 May 2018
      • Report Tweet

      But that’s why, regardless of how you automate, you have to keep good analysts around who understand the system, since they can recognize (and most importantly explain) those numbers to decision makers.

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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    4. Luke O'Brien‏ @luke_j_obrien 11 May 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Perfect example, from @wellerstein’s fantastic Nukemap. 1kt SADM burst over the Baltimore Ravens stadium’s 50-yard line. Only ~10,000 casualties (w/1,730 dead), because it works off census data. On a Sunday afternoon during football season you might be off by about 15,000 or so.pic.twitter.com/zRFw5jJrGR

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 May 2018
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      Replying to @luke_j_obrien

      (NUKEMAP does not use census data, it uses LandScan data. It uses an estimate of ambient population density — the odds that in any given 24 hours someone will be in that particular place. Just a point of clarification.)

      6:07 AM - 11 May 2018
      • 2 Retweets
      • 5 Likes
      • The Spacebar Kid Luke O'Brien edge case Jennifer Eager Dummy's Guide to Missiles Chowkidar Yeti
      1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Luke O'Brien‏ @luke_j_obrien 11 May 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Ah! That explains why the numbers looked as familiar as they did. I’ve always used Landscan for population data when doing consequence modeling.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. GeorgeWilliamHerbert‏ @GeorgeWHerbert 11 May 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @luke_j_obrien @wellerstein

          Having a brief flash of future FAA AST Ec calculations in realtime for space launch timeslots...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation

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