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Glad to see North and South Korea making what appear to be earnest efforts to reduce tensions and short-term possibility of war. But let us not forget history: DPRK strategy has long been one of oscillation between good and bad relations with regard to ROK.
For people wondering, how much credit is this to Trump, Kim, whomever? The answer is: we aren't really going to know for a very long time. This is the kind of question that only really gets answered when you open up the archives — if then. So beware drawing lessons at this stage.
I think it is important to ask, again and again here, what seems to be motivating Kim, who appears to be the prime mover in these talks? He may genuinely want to reduce tensions, and thus the possibility of war. But I doubt he wants to lose his new nuclear "hedge."
I think it's a good thing that DPRK is doing this — because I think reducing the tension of war is a good thing — but I also think we need to be realistic about what is likely to be achieved, so we don't get disappointed and angry if and when we find that little actually changes.
The main downside here for the short term is that I suspect the hawk lobby is going to have to turn their sights to Iran.
What are you Korean credentials here? Journalist? Scholar of the Korean Peninsula?
I'm an academic historian with a fancy PhD, for whatever that is worth, and I have spent a lot of time looking at how difficult it is to diagnose causes behind historical events. Take my views with as many grains of salt as you prefer.
that's great. you can be a historian of whatever you like. it doesn't make your wrong take any more right.
Feel free to ignore me — I will happily reciprocate
I'm not ignoring you. I just don't agree with your assessment. The Koreans want peace with the North. History is useful here, but only insofar as understanding how we got there, not where they are headed.
1) I don't disagree that ROK would like a more peaceful relationship with the DPRK. (I'm not sure why you'd think I'm saying otherwise.) 2) I don't claim history can tell us the future. But ignoring the past in thinking about future possibilities is obviously silly.
(Also, as an aside — "what are your credentials for having an opinion" followed by "credentials don't matter" is a bad look. If you want to engage with the opinions — feel free. If you are just looking for an excuse to ignore them — then just do it, nobody cares.)
fair enough. but i do think it's far more important though to see what experts in that specific field are saying like Victor Cha. https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-korea-what-you-need-know-about-koreas-summit-and-trump-kim-summit …
i'm gonna guess un's recent visit to china had a LOT to do with his current course.
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