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Glad to see North and South Korea making what appear to be earnest efforts to reduce tensions and short-term possibility of war. But let us not forget history: DPRK strategy has long been one of oscillation between good and bad relations with regard to ROK.
For people wondering, how much credit is this to Trump, Kim, whomever? The answer is: we aren't really going to know for a very long time. This is the kind of question that only really gets answered when you open up the archives — if then. So beware drawing lessons at this stage.
I think it is important to ask, again and again here, what seems to be motivating Kim, who appears to be the prime mover in these talks? He may genuinely want to reduce tensions, and thus the possibility of war. But I doubt he wants to lose his new nuclear "hedge."
I think it's a good thing that DPRK is doing this — because I think reducing the tension of war is a good thing — but I also think we need to be realistic about what is likely to be achieved, so we don't get disappointed and angry if and when we find that little actually changes.
The main downside here for the short term is that I suspect the hawk lobby is going to have to turn their sights to Iran.
I’ve discussed this amongst friends, but we’d appreciate an informed response. Consensus is that Kim pushed nuc as a safety net -possible he could hit US, maybe not. But the maybe is key. So, can’t see why he’d uninvent NKnuc: dude likes breathing.
It would be extremely strange (by basically any theory of human or political behavior) for Kim to give up a deterrent right after attaining it. Nothing is impossible. But it would be very unexpected — the strangest possible outcome.
On NPR (4/27), it was proffered that KJU is trying to get his illegal nuc-weapons program out of the news using this reconciliation as cover + build up his economy via the South. The weapons will remain continuing to damage the Non-Prolif Treaty. Ouch.
I am suspicious of Kim wielding propaganda showcraft in warming up to Seoul with the aim to drive a political wedge into US military presence in South Korea. So far it's working wonders on the surface. I am waiting for that issue to be raised after the initial flower show phase.
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