Alex WellersteinVerified account

Does anyone, on either side of the political aisle, actually think that the DPRK would give up its nuclear capability without receiving in exchange commitments that the US would not be willing to give? If the answer is "no" — what happens when this (inevitably) becomes clear?

Let me phrase this another way. People like to talk about North Korea as "crazy." The absolute "craziest" thing they could do is give up their nuclear deterrent in a situation where they have an aggressive nuclear-armed enemy. Does anyone think they are *that* crazy? I don't.

It's probably my own Twitter bubble speaking but I see literally no informed voices who seem to think that DPRK is actually interested in truly disarming. So what's the game plan? Is it negotiating on sanctions? Is it stalling to defuse tensions in that time-honored DPRK way?

Is it flexing some kind of cultural muscle, getting the attention and respect they think they deserve, by saying a few magic words to an American president very eager to hear them? I don't know.

What I do know is, taking seriously the idea that they'd spend SIX DECADES building up the infrastructure necessary to have nukes, and then just give it up relatively cheaply... that's the bizarro idea. Is it impossible? I don't know. But it's bizarro.

Playing the game of "if I were a North Korean" — if I were KJU, I'd be playing the US for time. Endless ways for discussions to get bogged down indefinitely.

If we take the "we don't need to test anymore" rhetoric seriously, they seem feel their missiles and warheads are adequate enough to deter. But they probably lack quantity. So slow everything down for several months or a year. Roll out a real stockpile.