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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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      Does anyone, on either side of the political aisle, actually think that the DPRK would give up its nuclear capability without receiving in exchange commitments that the US would not be willing to give? If the answer is "no" — what happens when this (inevitably) becomes clear?

      20 replies 94 retweets 254 likes
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    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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      Let me phrase this another way. People like to talk about North Korea as "crazy." The absolute "craziest" thing they could do is give up their nuclear deterrent in a situation where they have an aggressive nuclear-armed enemy. Does anyone think they are *that* crazy? I don't.

      17 replies 89 retweets 284 likes
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      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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      It's probably my own Twitter bubble speaking but I see literally no informed voices who seem to think that DPRK is actually interested in truly disarming. So what's the game plan? Is it negotiating on sanctions? Is it stalling to defuse tensions in that time-honored DPRK way?

      8:32 PM - 20 Apr 2018
      • 20 Retweets
      • 100 Likes
      • Eric Kim (김현철) Dominika Janus manu saadia 🖖 Bentalope I Am Big Cow Frostreads Sumanth ⚡ Michael Letterle Brent A
      7 replies 20 retweets 100 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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          Is it flexing some kind of cultural muscle, getting the attention and respect they think they deserve, by saying a few magic words to an American president very eager to hear them? I don't know.

          5 replies 13 retweets 79 likes
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        3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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          What I do know is, taking seriously the idea that they'd spend SIX DECADES building up the infrastructure necessary to have nukes, and then just give it up relatively cheaply... that's the bizarro idea. Is it impossible? I don't know. But it's bizarro.

          3 replies 35 retweets 142 likes
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        4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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          (And yes, they've been working towards this end since the 1950s!! From Richelson, _Spying on the Bomb_. Though the dedicated, make-me-a-bomb production program started in the 1970s, apparently.)pic.twitter.com/mikAGqKar5

          1 reply 12 retweets 67 likes
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        5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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          Playing the game of "if I were a North Korean" — if I were KJU, I'd be playing the US for time. Endless ways for discussions to get bogged down indefinitely.

          3 replies 15 retweets 85 likes
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        6. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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          If we take the "we don't need to test anymore" rhetoric seriously, they seem feel their missiles and warheads are adequate enough to deter. But they probably lack quantity. So slow everything down for several months or a year. Roll out a real stockpile.

          6 replies 21 retweets 95 likes
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        7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Apr 2018
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          Get things to the point where the US intelligence and military community can no longer whatsoever maintain the delusion that the US homeland wouldn't just get their hair mussed in some kind of "exchange."

          5 replies 10 retweets 82 likes
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        8. End of conversation
        1. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 20 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Cheryl Rofer Retweeted Cheryl Rofer

          Here's a guess in my thread from earlier tonight.https://twitter.com/CherylRofer/status/987482385502515200 …

          Cheryl Rofer added,

          Cheryl Rofer @CherylRofer
          Kim Jong Un has taken Donald Trump's measure 1/
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Pls retweet ma witticisms‏ @Cancun771 21 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein

          "ülan" #lol this is Trump you're talking about. Plans are much too boring and headachy. He's just gonna wing it, then start whining and bitching, and blame his failure on anybody else. It's just one of the usual stunts for him anyway. He doesn't give a damn.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Michael Letterle‏ @mletterle 20 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein

          I think the DPRK actually is serious about disarming, if the US left the peninsula (or maybe the whole region ). Which we won't, so...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Nick Motora‏ @NickMotora 21 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein

          That would be it. DPRK will hunker down and hope that they can survive Trump, and restart later. Surprise in store for them. If the US can't verify - this means inspectors with free range to go anywhere and lots of them, otherwise - No Deal. We live in Interesting TImes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Thomas Clough‏ @ThomasClough5 22 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein

          If you go back to the early 50’s you will find that the USA and a variety of allies (including South Korea)have been practicing simulation naval battles on a schedule that increases with a varied amount annually.Still,all the North wants is the constant threats to cease.Fair ?

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