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Does anyone, on either side of the political aisle, actually think that the DPRK would give up its nuclear capability without receiving in exchange commitments that the US would not be willing to give? If the answer is "no" — what happens when this (inevitably) becomes clear?
Let me phrase this another way. People like to talk about North Korea as "crazy." The absolute "craziest" thing they could do is give up their nuclear deterrent in a situation where they have an aggressive nuclear-armed enemy. Does anyone think they are *that* crazy? I don't.
It's probably my own Twitter bubble speaking but I see literally no informed voices who seem to think that DPRK is actually interested in truly disarming. So what's the game plan? Is it negotiating on sanctions? Is it stalling to defuse tensions in that time-honored DPRK way?
Is it flexing some kind of cultural muscle, getting the attention and respect they think they deserve, by saying a few magic words to an American president very eager to hear them? I don't know.
What I do know is, taking seriously the idea that they'd spend SIX DECADES building up the infrastructure necessary to have nukes, and then just give it up relatively cheaply... that's the bizarro idea. Is it impossible? I don't know. But it's bizarro.
(And yes, they've been working towards this end since the 1950s!! From Richelson, _Spying on the Bomb_. Though the dedicated, make-me-a-bomb production program started in the 1970s, apparently.)pic.twitter.com/mikAGqKar5
Playing the game of "if I were a North Korean" — if I were KJU, I'd be playing the US for time. Endless ways for discussions to get bogged down indefinitely.
If we take the "we don't need to test anymore" rhetoric seriously, they seem feel their missiles and warheads are adequate enough to deter. But they probably lack quantity. So slow everything down for several months or a year. Roll out a real stockpile.
Get things to the point where the US intelligence and military community can no longer whatsoever maintain the delusion that the US homeland wouldn't just get their hair mussed in some kind of "exchange."
Afaik the only nation that has willingly dismantled their completed atomic weapons is the post apartheid Republic of South Africa which no longer felt it needed a deterant correct?
The reasons the South Africans dismantled were multiple, but it's also worth noting that the South African program was FAR less developed than the North Korean one. South Africa made ~6 HEU gun-type weapons. North Korea has implosion, thermonuclear, ICBM, HEU+Pu, etc.
Was it that they couldn't afford to build them or didn't see the need because their perceived targets were non nuclear states rather then super powers?
Putin is paying NK to play nice with Trump in his time of need. That's my latest conspiracy theory.
I think unity with south Korea , China, Russia was offered and trade ( money always talks). Trump will see this as a win but he has managed to push those countries together and strategically it is bad.
I don't either. People who should know better now seeming willing to believe 6 impossible things before breakfast.
I know one guy that is stupid enough to believe it, and they know that #Dotard
Is it getting aid from Russia, China? Trump will claim victory, and keeping Trump in power destabilizes the US and other democracies.
Nope. Haven't believed it for a second. Think you are right, delaying to build up the arsenal sounds likely to me.
They are playing with Trump because they know he can be played. This is terrifying because it could work. #WhiteTrash4Trump
Kim will not get rid of nuclear weapons, it is a bargaining chip. He also knows they have made or will make attempts on his life. The Olympics was a turning point with N and S korea unity in sport (which he likes as evidenced by friendship with Rodman).
And they are witnessing what’s happening in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria plus the suffering of their own people.
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