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And — should go without saying but I will say it — obviously the totally silly "you can totally ride out a nuclear bomb" versions of CD are no good. I think "it might improve your survival chance from 10% to 30%!" combines desired usefulness with still plenty of horror,
and avoids the fatalism that takes over people's minds when they contemplate such things. (Many, MANY people have said to me: "we'll all be dead anyway so no need to worry about it" — NOT a useful attitude.)
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I think any discussion of CD needs to be upfront about expected size/dimensions of attack profile. My perspective changes rapidly as we move from 1 bomb to dozens. FWIW, I think Bo etc nailed it in terms of critiquing the rosy optimism of post-attack intentionality and order 1/
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Also, I worry that saying, "see, Castle Bravo means this is not survivable" will immediately discredit one with people who know that nobody fields 15 Mt monster bombs anymore, and that the difference between, say, 150 kt and 15 Mt in terms of fallout is massive (left and right)pic.twitter.com/u2QaQx7BTq
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