Alex Wellerstein on Twitter: "The real unknown here is the serviceman question. I'd like to think that if you looked at detonations side by side, you can tell, even without a scale reference, that .5 kt is pretty small for a nuke.… https://t.co/0m2TNcHxn8"

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Kingston Reif‏ @KingstonAReif 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @luke_j_obrien @JBWolfsthal and

And Russia or whoever else was on the receiving end would have no way of knowing whether the weapon had a secondary or not until it detonated, if at all. In other words: all risk, no reward.

2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes

Ankit Panda‏Verified account @nktpnd 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @KingstonAReif @luke_j_obrien and

And who knows if a primary-only detonation is an unintended fizzle or a "signal".

2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes

Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer (⧖) ‏ @NuclearAnthro 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @nktpnd @KingstonAReif and

Well, presumably we’d tell them! Communications difficulties seem unlikely during a crisis or war in which we’re starting to sling nukes, what could go wrong?

4 replies 1 retweet 10 likes

David Burbach‏ @dburbach 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @NuclearAnthro @nktpnd and

Does anyone have a good sense of how quickly and reliably an adversary can determine the size of the hit, given the US has likely been attacking their C2ISR systems? 1/

1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes

David Burbach‏ @dburbach 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @dburbach @NuclearAnthro and

By "determine" I mean, "national leadership informed and understands", not just, "this one sensor somewhere got the data" 2/

1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes

David Burbach‏ @dburbach 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @dburbach @NuclearAnthro and

I'm reminded of Clancy's "Sum of All Fears", where snow-covered ground causes US to over-estimate yield of a detonation. Whether that specific issue exists, no one has a lot of practice with wartime nuclear BDA 3/3

2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes

Adam Mount‏ @ajmount 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @dburbach @NuclearAnthro and

I was wondering about this recently. I actually have no idea, especially for detonations in forward positions. Luke? @wellerstein?

2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @ajmount @dburbach and

I have seen a suggestion (somewhere) that flash time can be used to estimate order of magnitude of burst as well.

2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @wellerstein @ajmount and

(It should be noted that while nuclear wonks are very picky about specific kilotonnage — was Little Boy 13, 15, or 18 kt? — because damage spreads as a cubic root, rough estimates are fine for damage assessment, fallout, etc.)

1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes

Adam Mount‏ @ajmount 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @wellerstein @dburbach and

Luke and Alex, what are the odds that US servicemen, unprompted or prompted, could distinguish between a .5, 5, and 50 kt surface blast? Atmospheric blast?

5 replies 1 retweet 6 likes

Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Jan 2018

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Replying to @ajmount @dburbach and

The real unknown here is the serviceman question. I'd like to think that if you looked at detonations side by side, you can tell, even without a scale reference, that .5 kt is pretty small for a nuke.

5:14 PM - 9 Jan 2018