The funny thing is, I've been studying nuclear weapons in a serious way for a pretty huge chunk of my life. Like, well over half of it at this point. And up until now, I've always said, the chance of them being used is non-zero, but not necessarily high.
But this is feeling pretty disturbing. Just the right mix of fools, ideologues, and sociopaths. Just the right mix of tensions and pressures and fears. Just the right mix of brittleness among the American public. Not great.
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I don't think I'm typically an alarmist. My view of history is that most of the time, things muddle along — never as bad or as good as they could be. But I've also spent a lot of time studying the "black swan" times, in which big, bad events happen. Lot of red flags right now.
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Over the course of my life nuclear war has gone from possible (1980's) to super unlikely (90's -early 2000's) to nightmarishly probable
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