1. Be wary of anyone who tells you they are "crazy." "Crazy" is the 21st century way to dehumanize your enemies, to make it easier to say, "they can't be dealt with like rational human beings."
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I gave a talk to some very bright high schoolers a few weeks ago, about how they should think about North Korea when they read about it in the news. Here is the gist of what I tried to get across: (thread)
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The DPRK leadership are dictators with no regard for their people or human rights. That, unfortunately, is not because they are crazy (and hardly makes them even unique). When it comes to nukes, they are acting like textbook "rational actors."
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2. Be wary of anyone who tells you the only options are to attack them now or attack them later. For the last 50 years the USA has blundered into a nearly unbroken string of wars on this kind of logic. It has rarely turned out to be true, and the consequences have been severe.
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(Anyone who wants to argue that the DPRK cannot be deterred has a high bar to clear. Why think deterrence won't work here, when it seems to have worked against Mao's China, Stalin's Russia, etc.? Why assume DPRK is more suicidal than other states?)
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Each war the US had gotten into had generally led to the exchange of old problems for new ones. *Sometimes* you may have to go to war — WWII qualifies for that for me. Even then, the world that came after was not exactly an easy one.
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(It is a broader point, but I think it is deeply disturbing that, after a half-century of mired conflicts, while we are still stuck in two of them, the broader US public, and many politicians of both parties, still seem to treat going to war rather lightly.)
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3. It is difficult to do so, but try to put yourself in the DPRK's position. They are a small, poor, weak, isolated country. They have one half-friend (China) who benefits from their being a point of attention for the rest of the region. They are otherwise surrounded by enemies.
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The DPRK view of the US is "that country that killed *millions* of our civilians during the Korean War, but who we ultimately fought to a standstill." The DPRK view of the US is, "a country that has nuked cities, overthrows governments, reneges on its deals."
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From their perspective, we aren't the good guys, we're the massive, rich, powerful, evil empire. We're Darth Vader; they're the rebels. We're Goliath; they're David. In their eyes. Is this right? It doesn’t really matter, except where these views shape their behavior.
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Think of every movie in which a scrappy group of fighters hold back against terrible odds while the barbarians are at their gates. Think of every movie where the last soldier in the bunker hits the switch and kills himself and much of the enemy in his dying gasp.
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If you back them into a corner, they might do "crazy" things. If they feel all is lost, they might do "crazy" things. If they feel there is no hope, watch out. The same as we might, the same as most proud people might.
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If the US tries to decapitate their leadership, or destroy their nukes, expect them to feel like they are in a "use it or lose it" scenario. Expect them to have prepared for this. Expect them to be willing to make the US or our allies eat a nuke in such a situation, if they can.
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To continue the empathy: what does the DPRK want? Most of all, they seem to want to feel that the US is not going to try to "decapitate" them. That's why they are making nukes. That's why many governments have tended to want nukes — for security.
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The US has spent the last 75 years saying that nukes == security. Don't be surprised when a weak, vulnerable country buys into that logic. Don't think that you are going to convince them to give up their security with threats. It has never worked that way.
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4. (Bonus point) Don't believe it when people say the North Koreans are stupid, are incapable of technical feats that are now decades old, etc. Their scientists and engineers seem competent enough to do this kind of work. They have been working at this for *decades*.
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End of conversation
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So the “gist” is that the free world should do nothing about North Korea =/
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It should do plenty of things — diplomacy, deterrence, beefing up our allies, sanctions, etc., all are things that are "on the table." Just not "start a war with them." But if the opposite of "start a war" to you is "do nothing," then yes, "do nothing" is preferable.
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The western world has tried that for over 50 years. Meanwhile the people of North Korea are subjugated to concentration camps and starvation. How much worse does it need to get before action? Does Pyongyang need to follow though with its threats of nuclear attack?
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How long? Like he said, Mao’s China and the USSR didn’t last forever. Why would NK be different? Military aggression will lead to “might as will kill them if I’m going down anyway” like nuclear strike somewhere.
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I agree. North Korea most likely is restrained by the (Nash) equilibrium inherent in MAD. Hence it is highly improbable that nukes would ever be deployed. The question becomes a mater of risk vs moral obligation.
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Moral obligation? Sure, but who’s going to take action? US government? Yeah, we can really trust those guys!
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The UN charter was signed 1945. The objective was to mitigate regimes like Nazi Germany. North Korea is exactly what the UN was drafted to deal with. Today you would think that the 193 member states would “do something” more then drink Perrier.
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The state, by its nature, is based on violence. The only thing it is capable of doing is destruction. The best way to help is release all sanction and encourage trade. Information will leak in too, like how tyrannical the regime is and how prosperous outside is.
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