The Hwasong-14 is an ICBM w/ a USIC estimated range of 7,500 to 9,500 km, but realistically, probably 11,000 km (and maybe more).
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Let's say it has a not-remarkable circular error probable (CEP) of 3,000 m. This is the radius w/in which there is a 50% chance of a strike.
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Here's what that looks like with a 30 kiloton (September 2016 test) nuclear payload over New York City.pic.twitter.com/62HgiVXtmO
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Here's what that looks like with a 140 kiloton (September 2017 test per working USIC estimate) nuclear payload over New York City.pic.twitter.com/gPHcAXmY1f
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The animations simulate multiple trials of the Hwasong-14 with the 3,000 m CEP and the variable payloads.
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Basically, with the 140 kiloton payload, accuracy is far from an issue (if it even was one w/ 30 kt). If it hits, it'll level a lot of NYC.
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Anyway, huge shoutout to
@wellerstein, whose awesome new *MISSILEMAP* tool lets you do what the above GIFs show.http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/2 replies 13 retweets 41 likesShow this thread -
(I chose NYC for illustrative purposes and because I live there. I centered the CEP radius on Williamsburg because... hipsters.)
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Just for fun, here's 500 kilotons (upper bound of estimates I've seen of the Kim-6 yield) with the same CEP on the Hwasong-14.pic.twitter.com/xfzjJdXAN9
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Replying to @War_Fighter24 @nktpnd
You can all do it yourself... it is an app:http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/
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