Alex WellersteinVerified account

They wouldn't, but if you think nuclear weapons would give them infinite confidence — I think that's wrong. Because they aren't suicidal.

Let me put it another way. Nuclear weapons didn't make Stalin think he could invade Western Europe, did they?

They didn't make Mao think he could invade Taiwan, did they?

There are ways to communicate, "if you do this, real war will start." Like, say, keeping US troops in South Korea.

Nuclear blackmail works both ways. We can't say, "disarm or we'll nuke you," because they'll know that is a bluff. Ditto in reverse.

Articulating real, solid, "red lines" is difficult but clearly possible.

If we could deter Stalin and Mao, we can deter KJU. DPRK is small, weak, poor, low-pop. No chance of survival in real war. They know this.

I don't think the situations are equatable. DPRK isn't even a self-sustaining state. The line where they have as much to lose but more to