If you want to have a realistic deterrence-question, ask, what happens if DPRK slowly moves across southern border?
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Nuclear blackmail works both ways. We can't say, "disarm or we'll nuke you," because they'll know that is a bluff. Ditto in reverse.
Articulating real, solid, "red lines" is difficult but clearly possible.
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If we could deter Stalin and Mao, we can deter KJU. DPRK is small, weak, poor, low-pop. No chance of survival in real war. They know this.
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I don't think the situations are equatable. DPRK isn't even a self-sustaining state. The line where they have as much to lose but more to
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Gain by serious action isn't the same as Mao/Stalin exercising expansionist attitudes. KJU is volatile in a different way.
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Disagree. If you think KJU is worse than Mao, go re-read on the Cultural Revolution. PRC in '64 was million times crazier than current DPRK.
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Anyway, point still stands: you believe that KJU is somehow historically undeterrable. I see no reason to believe this, many reasons not to.
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I guess we disagree on effective/necessary deterrence. Useful debate for me, anyway. May your next opponent be less obstinate.
End of conversation
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