We will still be able to threaten them absolutely. They will still know this. It will still not be worth it to either to start a war.
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Imagine the people around the Sea of Japan have such a laissez-faire attitude to a crisis developing.
They wouldn't, but if you think nuclear weapons would give them infinite confidence — I think that's wrong. Because they aren't suicidal.
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Let me put it another way. Nuclear weapons didn't make Stalin think he could invade Western Europe, did they?
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They didn't make Mao think he could invade Taiwan, did they?
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There are ways to communicate, "if you do this, real war will start." Like, say, keeping US troops in South Korea.
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Nuclear blackmail works both ways. We can't say, "disarm or we'll nuke you," because they'll know that is a bluff. Ditto in reverse.
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Articulating real, solid, "red lines" is difficult but clearly possible.
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If we could deter Stalin and Mao, we can deter KJU. DPRK is small, weak, poor, low-pop. No chance of survival in real war. They know this.
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I don't think the situations are equatable. DPRK isn't even a self-sustaining state. The line where they have as much to lose but more to
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Gain by serious action isn't the same as Mao/Stalin exercising expansionist attitudes. KJU is volatile in a different way.
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