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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 20 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet

      I don't think we'll ever live in a world where the nuclear risks of this sort will ever diminish. I'm not that optimistic.

      2 replies 4 retweets 12 likes
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    2. Jennifer Eager‏ @JennyImpatient 20 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      If the risk of an event is nonzero and never diminishes, do the laws of probability not say that the event will eventually happen?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @JennyImpatient

      Over an infinite timescale, sure. It's not the infinite I'm concerned with, though.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Jennifer Eager‏ @JennyImpatient 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      So it's not unlikely that we'll see a nuclear war rather soon, but we're certain to see one if nuclear disarmament is never completed?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @JennyImpatient

      If one is considering extremely long timelines, then lots of possible futures are conceivable, good and bad.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      I take "nuclear abolitionism" to be about the relatively short term (e.g., decades, not centuries).

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      My goal for the relatively short term is to reduce the risk of nuclear war, and to reduce the consequences if the systems fail.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      Also, I would correct on thing. The odds do change over time. They can go up and down. As do the consequences. It is not a static risk.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      The odds of a nuclear war in the early 1960s was high, as were the consequences. The odds decreased until 1980s, but consequences increased.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      Through 1990s-2000s, the odds of a US-Russia war decreased dramatically, as did the consequences. Still unacceptably high, but better.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 21 Oct 2017
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      I only bring this up because I do not conceptualize the risk or consequences as all-or-nothing. There are things that can affect it.

      9:16 AM - 21 Oct 2017
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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