If they are *wrong*... do they lose Honolulu? Los Angeles? San Francisco? San Jose? Take your pick.
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To put it another way: DPRK is never going to say, "remove sanctions or we'll do something that will surely get us killed."
If you want to have a realistic deterrence-question, ask, what happens if DPRK slowly moves across southern border?
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The answer is, we'd have a crisis and have to deal with it. Such is how things go. But that's more realistic than nuclear blackmail fiction.
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Blackmail is simplistic hyperbole but it illustrates a point as much as DPRK trying to sneak across the DMZ. Their capability only gets
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Stronger, and short of literal divine intervention with a revolution there's no reason DPRK will stop its pattern of belligerence. I can't
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Imagine the people around the Sea of Japan have such a laissez-faire attitude to a crisis developing.
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They wouldn't, but if you think nuclear weapons would give them infinite confidence — I think that's wrong. Because they aren't suicidal.
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Let me put it another way. Nuclear weapons didn't make Stalin think he could invade Western Europe, did they?
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They didn't make Mao think he could invade Taiwan, did they?
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There are ways to communicate, "if you do this, real war will start." Like, say, keeping US troops in South Korea.
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