The general theory of history I subscribe to is basically: most of the time, existing systems of power keep things on a constant track.
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They concentrate the power to do that in the hands of a VERY small number of people and systems. All of which are fallible.
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This makes them unusual. Anomalous. Scary. Hard to predict. Historically fascinating.
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People who know me well know: I am not really much of an activist. I have boring, moderate political opinions, relative to most academics.
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I have no real heart for radical activism. I don't really trust people enough to remake everything a once. You can like that, or not.
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I am not a nuclear abolitionist. I have an easy time seeing both sides of the argument. I would be OK with fewer nukes. Not sure about zero.
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(I accept that rational, reasonable, well-informed people can disagree on this topic. I take all serious positions seriously.)
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I was worried when Trump came to power. For many reasons. Nukes were one of them.
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But I told a lot of people that it wasn't my #1 reason to be worried. Economics, social issues, attacks on the press — these looked worse.
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I didn't think he, and his advisors, would be quite so obtuse about North Korea. I thought they'd see through the bluster.
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I thought they'd see that it's relatively easy to seem tough, without starting an all-out war. Plenty of Presidents have managed it.
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But I'm actually fairly worried. And my friends know, I am not a worrier in general. If anything, I think I err on the side of blasé.
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I'm worried that the people at the top are not asking the right questions. I worry that they are going along with very risky notions.
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I worry about groupthink. I worry about impulsiveness. I worry about pride.
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I worry that bad ideas will rule the day, because no one will stand up and take responsibility. I worry that the buck will be passed.
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I worry that they will come up with a "compromise" solution that will be far too risky for what is warranted,
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because the only "other" voices in the conversation will be extreme and foolish.
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It's more possible than I think a lot of people realize. I think history shows us it has almost happened more times than are safe.
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And I worry that the consequences will be horrendous.
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I also worry that the American populace's lack of real understanding the nature of the nuclear era has made them brittle to risk.
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That they think a nuclear-armed DPRK makes them much more threatened than before. Rather than just a bit more. That they were never safe.
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I don't think we'll ever live in a world where the nuclear risks of this sort will ever diminish. I'm not that optimistic.
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But there are more and less dangerous times, even if the danger is never zero. Right now, the danger feels very high. Unacceptably high.
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I hope I'm wrong. We'll see. I hope that those who are in positions of amplified power act reasonably. But, again, I'm not an optimist.
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End of conversation
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