I have been watching the PBS Ken Burns/Lynn Novick series on Vietnam, an hour or so a night. It's riveting, beautifully edited.
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And that it is not worth the costs of being wrong on this. There is no reason to think North Korea is not deterrable. War is avoidable.
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Anyone who thinks war is preferable has not really wrapped their head around the potential — maybe even probable — consequences.
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Mr. Wellerstein - Do you believe that the NK arsenal - which will only improve and grow - would only ever be used defensively?
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Yes, I do. Because the North Koreans are many things, but they are not suicidal.
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To put it another way, I don't think they are different than China, Russia, or Pakistan in their nuclear posture.
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And nuclear weapons — time has shown again and again — have only limited negotiating power. Nuclear blackmail doesn't really work.
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My lay view has been that the regime there would not offensively use their arsenal. I think they will try to make demands. Lesser evil.
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If KJU thinks that the US is going to try and kill him ("regime change"), I think they will use nukes as a "last gasp."
End of conversation
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Not to mention the casualties in Asia - likely millions in weeks, if not days.
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Have you read Logevall's "Choosing War"? Disturbing acct of how we awake-walked into SE Asia
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