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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. David Burbach‏ @dburbach 16 Oct 2017
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      A 100kt changes the effects radii, of course. (from @wellerstein NUKEMAP) 7/pic.twitter.com/qI3bYyeJiB

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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    2. David Burbach‏ @dburbach 16 Oct 2017
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      Of note: the bigger the bomb, the more the relative importance of thermal (heat) effects vs blast. 8/

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    3. David Burbach‏ @dburbach 16 Oct 2017
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      Also of note is that the bigger the bomb, the less important are prompt radiation injuries -- dead anyway from fire and blast 11/

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    4. David Burbach‏ @dburbach 16 Oct 2017
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      Very very roughly, thermal is inverse-square, blast a bit better than inverse-cube , and radiation a bit less than inverse-cube, I think (?)

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @dburbach @RadioFreeTom

      Thermal scales better at very high yields than blast. If you want an argument for "very very big bombs," thermal effect better than blast.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Tom Nichols‏Verified account @RadioFreeTom 16 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein @dburbach

      Also, what exactly would be the target for 50-100 MT? "Colorado?" I mean, it was a bomb in search of a use.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @RadioFreeTom @dburbach

      CIA argument was about compensating for poor accuracy. You would need far fewer 100 Mt warheads than, say, 7 Mt, to get same results:pic.twitter.com/U1QWFd5Obq

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein @RadioFreeTom @dburbach

      If your imagine Soviet ICBMs have low accuracy (e.g. 5 km CEP), and need high pressure (e.g. +200 psi) to destroy Titan II silos,

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein @RadioFreeTom @dburbach

      then increasing yield reduces missiles needed. Even w/100Mt there is still only ~37% chance of hitting a silo:http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/?&s=52.4807%2C82.7363&t=31.9027%2C-110.9994&p=ru_r-36m_(ss-18_mod_1)&sp=ru_aleysk&yp=psi200_sb&kt=100000&c=5000&r=11200&wr=1&td=200&mc=31.8817%2C-110.8834&z=10 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein @RadioFreeTom @dburbach

      And if silo-crushing pressure is higher than 200 psi, then SSPK drops a lot (10000 psi = 9%):http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/?&s=52.4807%2C82.7363&t=31.9027%2C-110.9994&p=ru_r-36m_(ss-18_mod_1)&sp=ru_aleysk&yp=psi10000_sb&kt=100000&c=5000&r=11200&wr=1&td=200&mc=31.9004%2C-110.9853&z=13 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein @RadioFreeTom @dburbach

      Of course, what Soviets *actually* did was make more accurate missiles, like the USA did. Which is better approach all around.

      8:36 AM - 16 Oct 2017
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        1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Oct 2017
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          Replying to @wellerstein @RadioFreeTom @dburbach

          To get 70% chance of destroying a silo with 200 psi at 5km CEP you need to aim at least 7 missiles at that silo. Expensive!!!

          3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        2. Pekka Oilinki, Phuket‏ @oilinki 16 Oct 2017
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          Replying to @wellerstein @RadioFreeTom @dburbach

          Why to bomb a silo as it's likely to be empty by the time the missile reaches it's location?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. David Burbach‏ @dburbach 16 Oct 2017
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          Replying to @oilinki @wellerstein @RadioFreeTom

          That's why you should only attack if you have a damn good of catching 'em with their pants down

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          4. End of conversation

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