A hopefully useless article on nuclear civil defense, quoting my colleague @RadioFreeTomhttp://www.washingtonexaminer.com/how-to-survive-a-nuclear-bomb-in-dc-yes-really/article/2637336 …
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Good info, though I'm surprised by claim (no attribution) that "experts believe NK can not attach a nuclear warhead to a missile" 2/
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And implicit assumption that even if NK could, it will only (!) be the 10kt variety and not thermonuclear, in the near future at least 3/
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Many NK missile experts say yes, warhead capability likely eg
@ArmsControlWonk ,@CherylRofer ,@nktpnd ,@NarangVipin@Joshua_Pollack 4/1 reply 0 retweets 2 likesShow this thread -
Likewise, press reports say intel community assessment is even if not certain today, capability plausible, and likely certain soon 5/
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And those outside experts have made a reasonable case that deliverable h-bomb (100kt +) is quite acheivable, now to fairly soon 6/
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A 100kt changes the effects radii, of course. (from
@wellerstein NUKEMAP) 7/pic.twitter.com/qI3bYyeJiB
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Of note: the bigger the bomb, the more the relative importance of thermal (heat) effects vs blast. 8/
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Also of note is that the bigger the bomb, the less important are prompt radiation injuries -- dead anyway from fire and blast 11/
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Very very roughly, thermal is inverse-square, blast a bit better than inverse-cube , and radiation a bit less than inverse-cube, I think (?)
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Thermal scales better at very high yields than blast. If you want an argument for "very very big bombs," thermal effect better than blast.
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Replying to @wellerstein @dburbach
Also, what exactly would be the target for 50-100 MT? "Colorado?" I mean, it was a bomb in search of a use.
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Replying to @RadioFreeTom @wellerstein
Well, WW2 Japan tried (and failed) several methods of starting mass forest fires in the Pacific NW.... But yeah.
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