Alex WellersteinVerified account

And implicit assumption that even if NK could, it will only (!) be the 10kt variety and not thermonuclear, in the near future at least 3/

Many NK missile experts say yes, warhead capability likely eg @ArmsControlWonk , @CherylRofer , @nktpnd , @NarangVipin @Joshua_Pollack 4/

Likewise, press reports say intel community assessment is even if not certain today, capability plausible, and likely certain soon 5/

And those outside experts have made a reasonable case that deliverable h-bomb (100kt +) is quite acheivable, now to fairly soon 6/

Of note: the bigger the bomb, the more the relative importance of thermal (heat) effects vs blast. 8/

The orange circle is severe 3rd degree burns / fires started; blue is heavy structural damage. 9/