Alex WellersteinVerified account

Do you really — truly — think that behind this statement of Trump's there is a deep understanding of BMD effectiveness rates?

I'm not in the business of discerning between simply repeating what he's been told or deep understandings

but I do think the pile on of this statement is a bit unfair.

I assume he's been given numbers for what think we can do against a missile headed toward Guam. And also toward US

and I assume shot doctrine is figured in to those numbers. If there's a mistake in his statements it's more likely that

the high percentage has shot doctrine built in.

but the point he's making is a legitimate one. His generals have a high confidence in our ability to intercept..

Even that ought to be worrying, in my view — BMD is not mature technology. The more astute military officers seem to recognize that.