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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet

      Alex Wellerstein Retweeted Ankit Panda

      It's truly worrying that Trump has such confidence in US ability to shoot down a DPRK ICBM. Would you wager >100,000 lives on a "coin toss"?https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/918319637296803840 …

      Alex Wellerstein added,

      0:50
      Ankit PandaVerified account @nktpnd
      So, here's @POTUS telling Hannity that the US has missile defense systems that'll knock #NorthKorea's missiles 97% of the time. 1/ pic.twitter.com/NRkwDYXynP
      Show this thread
      14 replies 22 retweets 59 likes
    2. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      @nktpnd he didn't say icbm.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RLHeinrichs @nktpnd

      Do you really — truly — think that behind this statement of Trump's there is a deep understanding of BMD effectiveness rates?

      3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    4. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein @nktpnd

      I'm not in the business of discerning between simply repeating what he's been told or deep understandings

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RLHeinrichs @wellerstein @nktpnd

      but I do think the pile on of this statement is a bit unfair.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RLHeinrichs @wellerstein @nktpnd

      I assume he's been given numbers for what think we can do against a missile headed toward Guam. And also toward US

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RLHeinrichs @wellerstein @nktpnd

      and I assume shot doctrine is figured in to those numbers. If there's a mistake in his statements it's more likely that

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RLHeinrichs @wellerstein @nktpnd

      the high percentage has shot doctrine built in.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RLHeinrichs @wellerstein @nktpnd

      but the point he's making is a legitimate one. His generals have a high confidence in our ability to intercept..

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @RLHeinrichs @nktpnd

      Even that ought to be worrying, in my view — BMD is not mature technology. The more astute military officers seem to recognize that.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 12 Oct 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein @RLHeinrichs @nktpnd

      And I think it is a fair bet that any caveats they have added to their estimates have not sunken in for Trump.

      9:24 AM - 12 Oct 2017
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 12 Oct 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @RLHeinrichs @nktpnd

          And that is worrying, because if false confidence in BMD is governing his attitudes towards the options with DPRK...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 12 Oct 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @RLHeinrichs @nktpnd

          there are *tremendous* consequences for being wrong. And everyone — no matter party affiliation — should take those deadly seriously.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. 2 more replies
        1. Rebeccah Heinrichs‏Verified account @RLHeinrichs 12 Oct 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          pic.twitter.com/7yP2pAB8FH

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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