It's truly worrying that Trump has such confidence in US ability to shoot down a DPRK ICBM. Would you wager >100,000 lives on a "coin toss"?https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/918319637296803840 …
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@nktpnd he didn't say icbm.
Do you really — truly — think that behind this statement of Trump's there is a deep understanding of BMD effectiveness rates?
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Do you really — truly — think that he couches his statement in lots of little caveats that reflect a deep understanding of the issue?
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Are you really — truly — willing to bet hundreds of thousands of American lives on his nuanced appreciation of the matter?
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To put it another way: when a world power makes a statement that makes him look like he is deeply ignorant of an important point,
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does Occam's razor, or our understanding of human history and psychology, warrant us giving him the benefit of the doubt?
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I'm not in the business of discerning between simply repeating what he's been told or deep understandings
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but I do think the pile on of this statement is a bit unfair.
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This is not some little statement. It's not even a Tweet! It's him going on US national television, bragging about how
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the US can easily shoot down North Korean missiles. I don't think it's unfair, or some mischaracterization of his words/attitude.
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As I hope it could be illustrative: Do you ponder an extension of MissileMap that could visualize BMD effectiveness rates?
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(I guess that too little is known publicly about success rates in order to realistically model interception success/failure scenarios.)
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I haven't thought about trying to do this. There are hacky ways you could do this, e.g., change the weapon reliability in the SSPK setting.
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Indeed, that could be a workaround. Since the topic is so pressing for public discussion now (also in your tweets), I thought I should ask.
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